Fresh macro data from the USA: the labor market is cooling, business activity is accelerating.
So far, this is actually the best combo of data that could be presented. Because, on one hand, the statistics show that the strength of the labor market without stimulus is not eternal, while on the other, business is not stagnating. In particular, the manufacturing sector, for which the data is not just above the forecast - but also higher than the previous figure.
Regarding the labor market, #Bloomberg highlights signs of a slowdown in the labor market.
A strong labor market, we remind you, is the argument the US Federal Reserve uses to justify not lowering the interest rate at all the recent meetings.
First the numbers, then the analysis:
- Total number of people receiving unemployment benefits: 1.972 million with a forecast of 1.960 million and a previous figure of 1.942 million.
- Number of initial jobless claims: 235 thousand, with a forecast of 226 thousand and a previous figure of 224 thousand.
- Manufacturing sector Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (August): 53.3 with a forecast of 49.7 and a previous figure of 49.8.
- Services sector Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (August): 55.4 with a forecast of 54.2 and a previous figure of 55.7.
It should be noted that the number of initial jobless claims in the USA has risen to a 2-month high this time. Meanwhile, the number of unprocessed claims increased by 30,000 to 1,972,000, exceeding expectations of 1,960,000 and reaching the highest level since the end of 2021.
Strong business activity data is, in the short term, a prospect for strengthening the US Dollar Index DXY, thus creating a 'headwind' for risk assets. HOWEVER, not least, such data also alleviates concerns about recession risks. And these are currently worrying many. Plus, if the trend in claims continues in the medium term, confirming the cooling of the labor market, it will strengthen expectations for a rate cut and will create a bullish backdrop for the crypto market in the coming months.