Proekt_73

An alert has been triggered for a sustained downtrend in BTC on the 30-minute timeframe. It was mentioned during the day that while there is none - there won't be any significant correction anyway.
So far, this signal opens up the prospect of moving only towards the following targets:
- $96,497,
- $96,184,
- $95,870.
On the 15-minute timeframe, where the downtrend appeared slightly earlier, we have almost reached the second target of $96,559.
According to our second indicator, we see that the important horizontal level of 96.499$ - continues to act as support. As long as the price is above, we are still talking about a local range that has been ongoing since May 1. Only with a break and a close below it can we expect at least a test of the local trend line from the high of April 25, which was broken by the impulse on May 1. There has been no retest of the breakout - there will be a chance to set that up. Currently, this trend line is around $95,506.
Futures trading on #BTC at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ended today at $97,680, which is a 'magnet' price for Monday.

Trump is once again calling on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the chances of a reduction have fallen. Notably, the latest demand was voiced immediately after the release of data that actually allows the Fed to hold off on rate changes.
Direct quote from Trump on Truth Social:
"Gas just hit $1.98$ per gallon - the lowest level in years. Food prices (and eggs!) are falling, energy is becoming cheaper, mortgage rates are declining, employment is strong, and there are many other good news as billions of dollars come in from tariffs. Everything I said is happening, and we are only at the TRANSITION STAGE - it’s just the beginning!!! Consumers have been waiting for this for years - for prices to start dropping. NO INFLATION, THE FED MUST LOWER RATES!!! DJT"
According to #CMEGroup, the probability of a rate cut on May 7 is only 3.4% (it was over 5% just yesterday).
Expectations for the meeting on June 18 have significantly changed since April 9:
- 58.8% expect a pause,
- 39.8% expect a reduction of 0.25 percentage points,
- 1.3% expect a reduction of 0.5 percentage points.
In April, the expectations for June were much more optimistic:
- 54.2% expected a reduction of 0.25 percentage points,
- 45.0% expected a reduction of 0.5 percentage points,
- 0.8% expected a reduction of 0.75 percentage points.

TOP-10 'made in USA' tokens since Trump's inauguration have lost up to 44%.
According to @cryptodiffer at the beginning of May 2025, the price dynamics of the largest projects registered in the USA are as follows:
- #XRP: -25.7%,
- #SOL: -40.9%,
- #ADA: -30.3%,
- #SUI: -22.3%,
- #LINK: -39.6%,
- #AVAX: -40.7%,
- #XLM: -37.5%,
- #HBAR: -44.0%,
- #LTC: -26.6%,
- #DOT: -34.2%.
None of these projects avoided significant declines. The maximum losses are for #HBAR (-44.0%) and #SOL (-40.9%), while the minimum is for #SUI (-22.3%).
Purchases based on the 'made in USA' narrative after Trump's inauguration turned out to be a clear false start. Moreover, it was so painful that many no longer wanted to buy at April prices, even with reasons to talk about a market turnaround.

Important events for the crypto market on May 2 from the economic calendar. All attention today is on the US labor market data; their publication will surely bring increased volatility to risk assets.
Full schedule for the day:
- 12:00 Kyiv and MSK / 14:00 Astana - Data pool on the EU economy:
-- Manufacturing PMI.
-- Core Consumer Price Index.
-- Consumer Price Index.
-- Unemployment Rate.
All data is important due to recession risks and the role of the euro in calculating DXY.
❗️- 15:30 Kyiv and MSK / 17:30 Astana - Large data pool on the US labor market:
-- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls.
-- Unemployment Rate.
-- Average Hourly Earnings.
-- Labor Force Participation Rate.
All data is very important for the May Fed decision.
- 17:00 Kyiv and MSK / 19:00 Astana - US Factory Orders. Important for assessing recession risks.

Scammer Arkad [fomokiller] has launched the tenth (!), anniversary scam token in his Telegram channel - supposedly a Coca-Cola token. He is creating fakes, not even trying anymore and calling them a "popular clothing brand" 🤡.

To everyone looking for information - this is a scam, you are being conned. This token is created by the scammer himself, the smart contract is written in such a way that you can buy this junk, but you won't be able to sell it. The scheme is called honeyport, if you haven't encountered it - read about it online.

Before this - "token from Bank of America" - binance.com/ru-UA/square/post/22751135397713
Before this - "token from McDonald's" - binance.com/ru-UA/square/post/22558897339505
Before this - "token from Amazon" - binance.com/ru-UA/square/post/22516903782569
Before this - "token from Apple" - binance.com/ru-UA/square/post/22418347597882
Before this he launched:
Scam token "SHR" binance.com/ru-UA/square/post/22289082581842
Scam token "GUN" binance.com/ru-UA/square/post/22254572761937
Scam token "RECALL" binance.com/ru-UA/square/post/22202991037322
Scam token "INF" binance.com/ru-UA/square/post/22117028920602
Scam token "BAI" binance.com/ru-UA/square/post/22072182866657

The BTC course shows the first adequate sign of correction since April 30. There is a transition into a stable downtrend on the 15-minute timeframe. Yesterday it was written that without this signal, it is too early to even talk about attempts to reverse.
The uptrend on this timeframe had been going since 94,638$ and gave a net movement of 2.9% at the peak over two days.
Now the price is looking down, while the nearest base targets are 96,298$ and 96,093$. There is a consolidation below the EMA 50 of this timeframe. Overall, the strength of this impulse still needs to be assessed; we are looking at older timeframes, waiting for signals there.

BTC could reach 125,000-150,000 by the end of summer to early autumn 2025, if it returns above $100,000. This conclusion was reached by the renowned cryptocurrency market analyst Peter Brandt.
He published an updated weekly chart of BTC with a key assumption: if the price can return to the previously broken parabolic trajectory, the market could reach the peak of the cycle as early as August-September of this year.
Currently, #BTC is trading within a wedge (Wdg), and returning to the parabolic curve will require a breakout of resistance around the mentioned $100,000.
At the same time, after reaching the peak, Brandt expects a correction of more than 50%.
So far, Brandt's technical scenario remains bullish - again, provided that #BTC can establish itself above the critical resistance zone and return to the parabola.
At the end, Brandt adds:
"Although I am less concerned about fundamental factors, the only scenario that could change everything is a sudden destruction of the US dollar, which could lead to a hyper-break above the upper curve, similar to interest rates in Germany in the 1920s."

BTC has strengthened from the overview, transitioning into a stable uptrend even on the 2-hour timeframe. With key targets of 96,811.51 and 97,525$. The density of additional targets is up to 99,653$. However, in 30 minutes, a candle will close with already the third mark of a potential high, which poses a challenge for the bulls.
As mentioned, even on the 15-minute timeframe, there is a stable uptrend - all discussions about a correction are just wishes. Yes - it makes sense to correct part of the pump, yes - there are signals of extremes. But the price is still being pushed higher. The current high is 96,734$.
Horizontal resistance levels on the 4-hour timeframe remain the same: 96,499$, 97,176$, 98,079$. The battle is currently ongoing for the first one.
And among the trend resistances, there is still one local, deserving attention - the trend line from the highs of April 23 and 25. It is currently at 98,838$. Too high for a simple over-high scenario and a move down.
Just in case, let's show other important horizontal levels on the 4-hour timeframe above: 100,335$, 101,689$, 103,720$, 104,849$. After all, as seen in the screenshot with six timeframes, we have a "total green" across all six timeframes, from 5-minute to 4-hour.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose more than expected. Moreover, they increased to a 9-week high: 241 thousand compared to the forecast of 224 thousand and the previous figure of 223 thousand.
The total number of claims for unemployment benefits also rose more than forecasts - to 1.916 million instead of the expected 1.86 million.
The data - while not the most important for the labor market this week, confirms yesterday's weak figures for employment in the non-farm sector from ADP.
The worse the labor market gets, the greater the chances that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start considering lowering interest rates. In this regard, tomorrow's data will be key - including the unemployment rate and changes in the number of jobs in manufacturing. Friday could be even more volatile on macro data than Wednesday was.