First, let's say it in plain language: when there's money to enter the market, new projects, and many activities, enthusiasm will be high. To keep up, don’t rely on mysticism, just use three steps: look at water → choose tickets → take action.
Step one: Look at the water (there's no wave without water)
I only look at three simple signals:
• Net inflow of stablecoins: more money in the platform = the market is easier to rise.
• Trading volume: increase = someone is trading; decrease = enthusiasm is fading.
• Funding rate (the small number on the contract): low = not crowded; high = everyone is pushing at the door.
My actions
• Hot (inflow ↑, volume ↑, low rate): can add a bit of trend position.
• Warm (flat): only do activities and new listings, do not chase blindly.
• Cold (outflow ↑ or high rate): reduce leverage, quick in and out.
Step two: Choose tickets (don't be distracted by flashy things, find good ones to work on)
Three categories are enough:
1. New Listing/Alpha: Check the announcement two days in advance, occupy the quota first, then distribute in batches, only do confirmation orders of 'breakout → retracement → support' at the opening.
2. Airdrops/tasks/Launchpool: do it if you can, frequency > amount; use two portions of money - 'participation portion' to score, 'trial portion' to follow the process.
3. Mainstream trends (like BTC/ETH): do swing trades when there is a volume breakout and low rate; reduce positions when there is low volume or many shadows.
Three steps: take action (using 'traffic lights')
• Green light: volume breakout + retracement supported + low rate → can follow.
• Yellow light: up and down sweeping shadows, rate heating up → observe or only do small trades.
• Red light: high rates, poor depth, many fake walls → retreat, do not be a hero.
Stop loss and position (simplest version)
• Maximum loss per trade 1% of the account;
• Automatically sell when the price drops to the planned stop loss (write it in the order);
• For a single ticket **-7% reduce by half, -12% clear out**; if I lose twice in a day, just take a break.
My own 'Today's Script' (example)
• Base position 40%: mainstream + simple investment, earn 'time money'.
• Flexible 40%: only take opportunities from new listings/activities, start small and then go big.
• Trial and error 20%: new themes/small cap coins, only enter with qualified depth, absolutely do not average down losses.
Three common pitfalls (don't step in)
1. Rush to the hot list: heat = crowded, often buying at places where others are selling.
2. No slippage testing: try a small amount before placing an order, avoid heavy positions on tickets with poor depth.
3. Write your stop loss in your heart: please write it in the order, otherwise it will be hard to execute on the spot.
30 Seconds Review Method
Ask myself three questions at closing:
• Did I earn direction or rhythm today?
• Is the maximum drawdown within 1%?
• If I mute social media, does my position still make sense?
One sentence to conclude:
Binance's 'heat', for me, is doing things according to the checklist: looking at water levels, choosing good tickets, acting based on traffic lights.
Stop the bad trades, you have already won over most people.
(personal perspective, not investment advice)