Countdown to Powell's Speech at 22:00! The Only Key to ETH Breaking 4400 Lies in This Dovish Card
The Institutional Layout Behind ETH's Plunge and Powell's Moment: The Life and Death of Investors in 48 Hours
Behind the panic lies a carefully designed chip harvesting; on the eve of favorable policy winds, institutions have heavily bet on dovish signals.
1. The Truth Behind the Plunge: Unwinding Panic is Actually 'Deleveraging', Operators Take the Opportunity to Wash the Market
On August 19, ETH fell 6% in a single day, briefly dropping below $4100, as the market was triggered by on-chain data showing 910,000 ETH being unwound. However, digging deeper reveals:
Unwinding ≠ Selling: Currently, on-chain lending rates have skyrocketed to 18% (the peak for the year), with many holders passively deleveraging to avoid liquidation; actual selling pressure is only 30% of the surface data;Operators Manipulate Emotions: Using policy uncertainty to amplify panic, inducing retail investors to cut losses before Powell's speech, paving the way for institutions to accumulate at low prices.
2. The Hidden Battle Among Institutions: 510,000 ETH Accumulation Exposes 'Policy Bottom' Predictions
When retail investors panic sell, whales and institutions are buying against the trend:
BMNR has bought 370,000 ETH in a week, with an average daily purchase of 53,000 ETH, setting a historical record before the Jackson Hole meeting;SBET simultaneously increased its holdings by 140,000 ETH, with the two giants swallowing 510,000 ETH in 7 days, locking in costs in the range of $4060-$4648;On-chain data confirms: A mysterious whale bought 32,000 ETH densely at $4450-$4470, such operations usually signal an impending change in trend.
The logic of institutions is clear: betting on Powell to release dovish signals, triggering a flood of liquidity into ETH—this liquidity magnet in the crypto market.
3. Powell's Moment: Two Scenarios at 22:00 on August 22 and the Direction of ETH
The Jackson Hole annual meeting has always been a catalyst for policy turning points, and this meeting means for ETH:
Hawkish Scenario (Probability 40%): If he emphasizes “persistent inflation requires maintaining high interest rates,” ETH may briefly test the $4000 support, but the decline will be limited (the market has already priced in interest rate hike expectations), and it may instead lead to a rebound;Dovish Scenario (Probability 60%): If he hints at interest rate cuts or slowing rate hikes, it will open the floodgates for dollar liquidity. Historical patterns show: After Powell's dovish remarks in 2023, ETH surged by 42% in 72 hours. Institutions have heavily bet on this scenario, aiming for a breakout above $4400.
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