Has the bull market really ended? Don't be swayed by panic; these two data points are key.

Recently, the crypto group has been in an uproar, full of cries of 'the bull market is over' and 'run quickly'. But I dare say, declaring the bull market is dead right now is purely unnecessary worry — if it were confirmed that the bull has turned bearish, I would have told you to clear your positions back in 2022, why wait until it corrects to $106,000 or even drops below $98,000 to run?

Don't let the PPI data scare you; the real test is in these two days.

Last Thursday's PPI data directly poured cold water on market enthusiasm. But how much of this data is inflated, experienced players understand — institutions dare to hit the market with such controversial data, they also dare to go long at critical points.

What you should really focus on are the next two days: the non-farm data on September 5 and the CPI data on September 11. These two are the 'referees' that determine the market direction; whether a phase of bear market starts or not will largely depend on their readings.

Those who are now shouting 'Bitcoin will drop to 60,000, 40,000' are either looking to pick up bloodied chips or have been overwhelmed by panic. Remember that wave during last year's conflict? On Saturday night, BTC dropped from $105,000 to $98,500, and the group was full of 'it's going to break $80,000, $70,000' calls, only for it to bounce back above $105,000 the next day. How many shorts were crushed?

This pullback feels more like 'digging a pit before a rate cut'.

Objectively speaking, the recent pullback feels more like 'squatting to gather strength' — think about it, before every major surge, doesn’t the main force have to shake out the retail positions first?

In the 2017 bull market and the 2021 bull market, which time didn’t experience a pullback of over 30%? But as long as the big trend isn’t broken, pullbacks are just opportunities to enter. What we need to do now is not to guess tops and bottoms blindly, but to follow the trend.

  • Don’t hesitate when you should short (like breaking key support levels);

  • Don't hesitate when it's time to buy the dip (like stabilizing support + favorable data);

  • Always set profit-taking and stop-loss, don’t let subjective judgment harm you.

Historical rule: August has never been the end of a bull market.

Bitcoin's four halving cycles are there, and no bull market has abruptly stopped in August. In past bull market tails, most concentrated from November to January the following year — it’s only the end of August now, rushing to conclude for the market is purely self-defeating.

Remember, those who make money in the crypto space are always the ones who 'look at data and follow trends', not the ones who 'listen to news and panic'. Keep an eye on non-farm payrolls and CPI for the next two weeks, it’s 100 times more useful than arguing in the group.

To be honest: if the bull market ends, the K-line will tell you with a sharp drop; but this fluctuation now seems more like the main force is 'washing the plate and collecting chips'. Stay calm, don't let emotions lead you astray, as opportunities often hide in the differences.

#加密市场回调 #Strategy增持比特币 #山寨季何时到来？