I have been trading cryptocurrencies for 12 years, with 3 liquidations in the first 7 years, owing up to 800,000 at one point. Later, relying on a combination strategy of 'trend + volume', I multiplied my capital by 100 times in 5 years. Many people say the cryptocurrency market is a casino, but to me, it feels more like a farmland that requires 'watching the weather to eat'. Understanding cycles and signals is essential for harvesting in the market; otherwise, you can only be cut down like leeks.

First understand the 'four seasonal rules' of the cryptocurrency market: when to sow and when to reap?

The cryptocurrency market has 'seasons' just like the stock market. The most common mistake beginners make is to trade 'all year round' without rest. I have reviewed 10 years of data and found that there are only 3 segments each year that are truly worth heavy investment; the rest of the time is 'fallow period':


  • Spring Market: From mid to late February to mid-April (capital flows back from the Spring Festival holiday, institutions begin to layout).

  • Autumn Market: From September to November (traditional financial market capital transfers, the cryptocurrency market often welcomes a surge).

  • Year-End Market: From late December to early January (after year-end settlement, capital enters the market, small coins are easy to emerge as stars).


From June to August, May, and late November to mid-December, these three time periods are often 'oscillation harvesting periods', either sideways grinding or sudden spikes. It is recommended to keep the position control within 30% or even to be out of the market and watch.
Remember: not trading is also a form of trading. If you can catch 3 waves of market movements in a year, it is enough to outperform 90% of retail investors.

Core Strategy: 'Trend Volume' - a combination of two swords, accurately capturing buying and selling points.

Compared to simply looking at K-line patterns, combining 'trend direction' and 'trading volume changes' can increase your win rate by at least 40%. I have used this method for 5 years, applicable from Bitcoin to altcoins, especially suitable for beginners to get started quickly.

Step 1: Draw the trend line and distinguish between 'uptrend / downtrend / sideways'.

The trend is the 'root' of trading; entering the market without distinguishing the trend is like driving with your eyes closed.


  • Uptrend: Connect the two recent low points to form an upward straight line (lower points getting higher), and the price consistently runs above the trend line.

  • Downtrend: Connect the two recent high points to form a downward straight line (higher points getting lower), and the price consistently runs below the trend line.

  • Sideways Trend: Highs and lows alternate, and the price oscillates between two parallel lines.


(The above image shows the drawing of the uptrend line on Ethereum's 4-hour chart, from November to December 2023, each time the price touches the trend line is a long opportunity.)
Key Reminder: The trend line is not fixed; every time a new high or low point appears, it needs to be readjusted. For example, in an uptrend, if the price breaks below the trend line and closes below it for 3 K-lines, it indicates that the trend may reverse, and one should decisively exit. Step 2: Check trading volume to 'verify truth' and avoid false breakouts. Many times the price will 'mislead the line', for example, it looks like it is going to break out upward, but as soon as you enter, it crashes - the problem lies in 'trading volume not keeping up'.

  • True Breakout: When the price breaks through the trend line/key resistance level, trading volume suddenly expands (at least 1.5 times the average volume of the previous 3 K-lines), indicating that capital is truly entering the market.

  • False Breakout: Price breaks through but trading volume does not expand, or even shrinks, is likely a trap set by the main force, so do not chase.


(The above image shows a daily chart for Bitcoin, an example of a false breakout in March 2024: the price breaks through a resistance level but trading volume is only 60% of the average, followed by a 15% crash.)
Practical Tips: In an uptrend, when a pullback occurs, trading volume shrinks (selling pressure decreases), and when it rises again, trading volume expands (buying pressure increases), which is a signal of 'healthy growth'; conversely, if trading volume shrinks during an uptrend, it indicates that the price cannot continue to rise, and one should be cautious of a pullback. Step 3: Entry point = trend line + trading volume + K-line signal. Just having trend and volume is not enough; you also need a 'trigger point'. I often use the combination of 'engulfing pattern' + 'trend line support/resistance':

  • Long Signal:

    1. Price stops falling near the uptrend line.

    2. A bullish candle engulfs the previous bearish candle (the body of the bullish candle completely covers the body of the bearish candle).

    3. Trading volume is at least 50% higher than the previous K-line.
      (The above image shows a long position example for SOL on a 1-hour chart on May 12, 2024, which rose 20% within 4 hours after meeting the above 3 conditions.)

  • Short Signal:

    1. Price is blocked near the downtrend line.

    2. A bearish candle engulfs the previous bullish candle (the body of the bearish candle completely covers the body of the bullish candle).

    3. Trading volume is at least 50% higher than the previous K-line.
      (The above image shows a short position example for ADA on a 4-hour chart on February 8, 2024, which fell 12% within 3 hours after meeting the conditions.)

Step 4: The iron rule of stop loss and take profit, preserve profits without being greedy.

Those who enter the market are disciples, and those who exit are masters. The stop loss and take profit settings in this method are very simple but must be strictly followed:


  • Stop Loss:

    • Long: Set below the lowest point of the engulfing pattern by 0.5% (for example, if the low point of the pattern is $100, stop loss at 100 - 0.5 = $99.5).

    • Short: Set above the highest point of the engulfing pattern by 0.5%.

    • Principle: A single trade loss cannot exceed 2% of the principal. For example, if you have a principal of 100,000, the maximum loss per trade is 2,000 yuan.

  • Take Profit:

    1. First Target: Recent high and low points (for example, in an uptrend, look at the nearest resistance above).

    2. Second Target: 1.5 times the length of the trendline (measure the vertical distance of the trendline with a ruler and multiply by 1.5).

    3. Trailing Stop Loss: After profit exceeds 5%, move the stop loss to the entry price (break-even); after exceeding 10%, move it to a position with a 5% profit, letting the profit 'fly for a while'.


Example: In April 2024, BTC gave a long signal at $40,000, with a stop loss at $39,500 (losing 500 points), first target at $42,000 (gaining 2,000 points), second target at $44,500 (gaining 4,500 points), risk-reward ratio of at least 4:1. Even if you only win 2 out of 5 trades, overall you are still profitable.

Capital Management: Staying alive is more important than making quick money.

I have seen too many people use the right methods but collapse due to poor position management. Remember these 3 'life-saving lines':


  1. Total Position Control:

    • Uptrend: Maximum 60% position (enter in 3 batches, each batch 20%).

    • Downtrend: Maximum 40% position (shorting carries higher risk, position should be lighter).

    • Sideways Trend: Maximum 20% position (quick in and out, take profits when they appear).

  2. Daily Stop Loss Limit:

    • If losses in a day reach 5% of the principal, stop immediately and do not trade that day.

    • If there are 3 consecutive days of losses, pause trading for a week and review the issues.

  3. Never go all in:

    • Even with the most certain opportunities, do not go all in at once.

    • The position in altcoins should never exceed 10% of the total capital (high volatility makes it prone to going to zero).

Final reminder: The secret to making big money in the cryptocurrency market lies in 'patience'.

I have seen the fastest way to get rich was in 2021 when someone bought SOL with a principal of 100,000, turning it into 5 million in six months; I have also seen the worst liquidation when someone used 100 times leverage to trade altcoins, losing 2 million in 5 minutes.


The cryptocurrency market can indeed change people's fortunes quickly, but the prerequisite is: you must first learn 'not to be eliminated by the market'. The core of the trend volume strategy is not about 'how many opportunities to seize', but rather 'how many garbage opportunities to filter out'.
Just like fishermen do not go to sea during a typhoon, true trading experts spend most of their time waiting - waiting for the signal that meets all conditions, waiting for the clear trend opportunity, waiting for the market that can safely double the principal.
Save this article and take it out to look at next time you can't help but want to enter the market recklessly: the market is never short of opportunities, what is lacking is the ability to survive until the opportunities come.
Follow me, next week I will share '100x Signal Recognition for Altcoins', teaching you how to find the next SOL or PEPE from thousands of coins in advance!

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