Recently, Haimian has been emphasizing that the drop in Bitcoin and Ethereum is not over; do not rush to catch the bottom! That night, the bears continued to exert pressure, leading to a plunge in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a total of 151,299 people liquidated globally, amounting to $537 million. Haimian has been observing recently and won't open positions until the market reaches the current target point.
BTC
Bitcoin continued to drop sharply yesterday, currently nearing 112,000, but shows no signs of stopping. The BTC trend is really frustrating; it's not a one-time drop but a deliberate drop of over 700 USD to reach 112,000! If it had directly dropped to the 110,000~112,000 range, it would probably have seen a quick rebound. But it deliberately lingers here, leaving such an ugly low point; it’s really annoying.
Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing small-scale downward fluctuations. If the bulls continue to be weak during the day, the weekly MACD is likely to form a death cross. Once the large-scale indicators confirm the death cross, it can be expected that there will either be a long-term repair period (from March to August 2024) or a sharp decline (from January to April 2025).
Bitcoin's key support is in the previous high range of 110,500-112,000; only by holding this position can we expect a rebound and go long. If this support breaks, the decline may widen, and we might even see Bitcoin prices below 100,000.
ETH
Recently, the Ethereum washout has been quite severe, dropping nearly 20% from the high. From the daily chart, the current pullback has reached a key position. The support level at 4160, which was originally the stop-loss level for FOMO chasing, will turn into current resistance if it breaks and cannot recover in a short time.
If the left shoulder support at 4160 breaks, the next thing to pay attention to is the 4-hour Vegas channel. The last time this channel broke, it retraced from 3940 to 3352 before starting to rise to 4790. This does not mean you should go all in, but if you're afraid of missing out, you can enter with a small position around 4070 and add near 4000, with a stop-loss set at 3960.
Just like the layout at 3400, no one can precisely catch the bottom; we can only say to layout in this range. If you want to gain that 1,000 points profit after 3400, your stop-loss must withstand the test; otherwise, you're just gambling.
Altcoins
In terms of altcoins, one can choose to invest in quality leading coins at low points; the logic remains unchanged. Only those quality leading altcoins can follow the market's rise; the rest are almost trash at this point.
In this round of bull market, only those cryptocurrencies associated with stocks are worth discussing; other small coins have almost no hope. Many people are still asking if altcoins will rise.
The answer is that most project teams have long abandoned their projects, while you still believe strongly. Investing in altcoins is like investing in venture capital (VC); you are investing in people and teams, not the projects themselves. If you still believe in the future of altcoins, then delve into researching the project teams; only those teams that genuinely deliver results are qualified for the future.
In fact, every bull market sees a large influx of external funds, and as a wave of liquidity exits, the bull market ends. The end of this round depends on when Wall Street can't buy anymore. If the US can continue to borrow, print money, and cut interest rates to release liquidity, the market can continue to rise; otherwise, it may also come to an end.
Recently, it feels like US prices are rising again. The expectation for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is two times; currently, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in September is over 70%, but only 50% in October. Based on Powell's attitude, if CPI rises, there may only be one cut. My current attitude towards the market is cautiously optimistic, advancing while retreating; the louder the calls for a bull market, the greater the noise. Keep your clarity; when the avalanche comes, no snowflake is innocent.
The core narrative of the current bull market is 'everything on the chain'. Future opportunities mainly lie in RWA (Real World Assets on the chain) and stablecoins, but these require strong endorsements from institutions and governments, and actual implementation will take time and may encounter obstacles from intermediaries' interests. Bitcoin's position is solid, while other coins are more about short-term hype. For long-term investors, holding Bitcoin is advisable, and after a sharp drop, participating in RWA projects may bring the next round of bullish alpha opportunities.
