1. Market Observation
On Tuesday, influenced by concerns over the commercialization returns of artificial intelligence and warnings about industry leader bubbles, U.S. tech stocks faced the most severe sell-off in months, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index dropping 1.4%. A report from MIT indicating that 95% of AI investment returns are zero, along with comments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman about 'excessive excitement', exacerbated market panic, causing funds to flow out of high-momentum tech stocks like Nvidia and into defensive sectors like consumer staples, putting pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.
Currently, market focus is shifting towards the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium on Thursday and the minutes from the July Federal Reserve meeting. Although traders are heavily betting on a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, higher-than-expected inflation data, rare internal disagreements on the timing of rate cuts, and political pressure from the White House have cast a thick cloud of uncertainty over the monetary policy outlook. In this context, Goldman Sachs strategists pointed out that five-year U.S. Treasury bonds have become an attractive trading option due to their ability to provide protection during periods of rising market risks.
Regarding Bitcoin, market views show a mix of bullish and bearish sentiments. Conservative trader Roman believes that if Bitcoin falls below $112,000, it may further drop to $97,000; Rekt Capital also pointed out that if prices continue to close below $114,000, it will confirm a downward trend. In terms of support levels, Keith Alan from Material Indicators believes the key range lies between $107,000 and $110,000, with the 100-day moving average (around $110,950) being an important defense line, and significant liquidity providing downside protection at $105,000. In contrast, bullish analyst BitQuant firmly believes that Bitcoin will not fall below $100,000 in this bull market, providing target prices of $145,000 to $250,000. TheKingfisher's analysis also pointed out that there is a large short liquidation area above $117,000, which may attract prices upwards.
Regarding Ethereum, multiple analysts view the recent pullback as a healthy adjustment. Simon Dedic, founder of Moonrock Capital, pointed out that a 10% pullback after a three-month tripling in price is normal, and if support can be found and rebound between $4,000 and $4,100, it would be a typical bullish confirmation. Axel Bitblaze also stated that the current ETH price pullback to around $4,100 is a healthy adjustment, and it is expected that ETH will break through historical highs in the next phase, bringing liquidity into its ecosystem tokens. Specifically, Mark Newton, an analyst at Fundstrat led by Tom Lee, predicts that Ethereum may reach a buying opportunity zone between $4,075 and $4,150 by mid-week, followed by a rebound to around $5,100. Analyst Ted added that there is significant liquidity in the $4,100 to $4,150 range, and a CME gap, with prices potentially starting a new round of increases after filling the gap. (PANews note: The gap was filled on the morning of August 20). More optimistic predictions come from CryptoRover, who observed whale activity and the short-squeeze “magnet points” in the $4,300 to $4,360 range, believing this could push prices towards $4,750 to $8,000.
Regarding the recent pullback in the crypto market, HashKey’s chief analyst Jeffrey Ding stated that it is mainly due to profit-taking, market deleveraging, and macroeconomic factors. He believes that the accumulated profit positions concentrated at high levels are being sold off, combined with the liquidation process of high-leverage positions, amplifying price volatility. At the same time, the cooling of expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut and the diminishing marginal effects of favorable policy signals have also suppressed risk appetite for crypto assets. Nevertheless, he emphasized that this pullback is a healthy adjustment within an upward trend, rather than a fundamental trend reversal.
From an overall market dynamic perspective, today the Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 44, indicating a 'fear state', reflecting cautious sentiment in the market. Among altcoins, Placeholder partner Chris Burniske pointed out that Solana has become the fastest rebounding major crypto asset from the recent market bottom and is expected to maintain its lead in the coming weeks. At the same time, there are differing views among Wall Street institutions regarding the long-term impact of stablecoins. Bernstein is optimistic that the crypto bull market will last until 2027, raising target prices for companies like Coinbase and Robinhood; while Goldman Sachs believes that stablecoins pose a 'limited threat' to the traditional payment system, and is more optimistic about Robinhood's innovative capabilities in the crypto space.
2. Key Data (as of August 20, 12:00 HKT)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $113,621 (YTD +21.42%), daily spot trading volume $45.49 billion.
Ethereum: $4,161.55 (YTD +24.78%), daily spot trading volume $41.352 billion.
Fear and Greed Index: 44 (Fear)
Average GAS: BTC: 2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.2 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 60.02%, ETH 13.19%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: ETH, XRP, API3, BTC, STRIKE
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 49.58%/50.42%
Sector Performance: The crypto market suffered a comprehensive setback, with the GameFi sector leading the decline at 3.35%, and the PayFi sector down 2.46%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 128,043 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $450 million, including $102 million in BTC liquidations, $174 million in ETH liquidations, and $17.5 million in XRPL liquidations.
BTC medium-long term trend channel: upper bound (118,098.33 USD), lower bound (115,759.75 USD)
ETH medium-long term trend channel: upper bound (4,275.66 USD), lower bound (4,190.99 USD)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower bounds, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price fluctuates within the range or repeatedly crosses the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of August 19)
Bitcoin ETF: -$523 million
Ethereum ETF: $422 million
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Alpha will launch DecentralGPT (DGC) on August 20.
Qubic will implement Epoch 175 halving on August 20, reducing the effective weekly issuance by approximately 50%.
AI project Sapien will conduct its TGE on August 20, with 5% airdropped to early contributors.
Binance Alpha will launch AriaAI (ARIA) on August 21.
The Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of the monetary policy meeting. (August 21, 02:00)
LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock approximately 25.71 million tokens on August 20 at 7 PM, accounting for 8.53% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $56.6 million.
KAITO (KAITO) will unlock approximately 23.35 million tokens on August 20 at 8 PM, accounting for 10.87% of the current circulating supply, valued at approximately $26.2 million.
Bittensor (TAO) will unlock approximately 210,000 tokens on August 21, valued at about $81.5 million.
Top gainers among the top 100 by market cap today: Mantle up 7.8%, OKB up 6.2%, Lido DAO up 2.1%, Jupiter up 2%, Solana up 1.6%.
5. Hot News
CyberKongz will issue a new token KONG to replace BANANA, with 2% airdropped to the Ethereum NFT community.
BitMine and SharpLink's cost price for holding ETH are $3,730 and $3,478 respectively.
SkyBridge Capital plans to tokenize $300 million in assets on Avalanche.
Thumzup plans to fully acquire Dogehash, entering the Dogecoin and Litecoin mining space.
VCI Global announced a $2 billion collaboration: promoting crypto infrastructure and asset tokenization based on 18,000 BTC.
Wyoming launches the first state-level stablecoin FRNT, already available on seven blockchains including Solana and Arbitrum.
The number of ETH exiting the Ethereum PoS network queue has increased to over 900,000, with a wait time of approximately 15 days and 18 hours.
Public company BNC announced an increase in BNB holdings from 200,000 to 325,000.
ETHZilla's stock code has changed from 'ATNF' to 'ETHZ', holding a total of 94,675 ETH.
This article is supported by HashKey, with HashKey Exchange being Hong Kong's largest licensed virtual asset exchange and Asia's most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets. It aims to set a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform protection.
