On August 20, Big Soldiers Unblock Currency: The panic index drops to 44, BTC dips to 113K, ETH loses 4150, altcoins wait for bottoming signals

1. Fundamentals: The dual-edged sword effect of tariff debt repayment is emerging, market sentiment shifts from greed to panic

1. US Treasury Secretary's tariff debt repayment plan: Hidden games between bullish and bearish

US Treasury Secretary states that tariff revenue will be used to repay debt and reduce the deficit-to-GDP ratio, forming a 'dual-edged sword' effect on the crypto market:

  • Potential bullish factor: If tariff revenue can indeed reduce the scale of bond issuance, US Treasury yields may decline, and risk appetite may rise, benefiting BTC, ETH, and other risk assets;

  • Potential bearish factor: If trade frictions escalate, pushing inflation and uncertainty higher, US Treasury yields may rise, and the dollar may strengthen, putting pressure on the crypto market. It is necessary to be cautious about the actual impact after policy implementation.

2. The panic and greed index drops to 44, sentiment enters the 'slight fear' window

Today's panic and greed index drops from the 'greed zone' to 44, classified as slight panic:

  • Signal interpretation: Previous greed sentiment showed excessive capital chasing, and after a pullback, sentiment cooled to a 'slightly cold' state, not systemic panic, usually a critical stage for strong coins to pull back and buy low;

  • Follow-up reminder: If the index continues to fall below 30, it may indicate that the opportunity for altcoin market activation is approaching, and current observation of trend continuity is necessary.

3. Live broadcast accurately strikes ETH short, 100 points profit taken

Last night at 8:30 PM in the live room, shorted ETH at the 4310 position, took profit at 4200 for a gain of 100 points, the trend short position continues to be held, short-term bearish rhythm is accurately controlled.

2. BTC technical perspective: Bearish trend continues, 110K becomes a key short-term defense

Downward structure and target deduction

BTC yesterday dipped to 113K as expected, achieving the first target of 112K, with technical bearish features strengthened:

4-hour rhythm and daily strategy

After a slight rebound following a volume drop in the 4-hour line during US trading, yesterday's Asian session faced resistance near 115K. Focus on shorting in the 114.5-115.5K pressure zone during the day, with support looking at 111.5-110.5K; if the rebound lacks strength, continue the bearish strategy.

3. ETH technical perspective: Losing support at 4150, the 4000 mark becomes a battleground for both bulls and bears

Breakout signal and defensive position analysis

ETH broke through the previous platform support of 4150 this morning, dipping near the 4000 mark, with targets achieved as expected:

4-hour structure and trading opportunities

The 4-hour line shows a fluctuating downward trend, with clear lower highs. During the day, focus on shorting in the 4190-4240 pressure zone above, and support levels at 4080 and 3960 below; if the rebound lacks volume, consider adding to short positions.

4. Altcoins: Selling pressure weakens but space is limited, waiting for rotation opportunities after mainstream bottoming

The current downward momentum of altcoins has significantly weakened compared to the first half of the year, mainly due to lower selling pressure — mainstream coins faced concentrated selling pressure due to previous significant gains, while altcoins have not experienced large-scale speculation, limiting the downside.

Future market trigger points

Major signals needed for a big altcoin market:

  • Liquidity catalyst: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts lead to market liquidity easing, bringing external funds into the market;

  • Capital rotation: The adjustment of mainstream coins has ended, profit-taking has retreated, and some funds have shifted to the altcoin sector.

Current strategy is still 'patiently waiting', waiting for mainstream coins to show bottoming signals (e.g., BTC stabilizing at 110K, ETH holding 4000 with declining volume), then entering positions in potential targets to avoid early bottom-picking and taking adjustment risks.

Risk warning: The sentiment in the crypto market is closely related to macro policies, the above analysis is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice, operations must strictly set stop-loss and control positions.#加密市场回调