1. Fundamental Aspect: Regulatory compliance is accelerating, and the market is entering a cautious wait-and-see period.

1. The U.S. Treasury Department launches a public opinion collection on crypto anti-illegal activities, compliant assets are expected to receive premium opportunities.

The U.S. Treasury, based on the (GENIUS Stablecoin Act), has launched a 60-day public opinion collection focused on combating money laundering, sanction evasion, and other illegal activities in the crypto space. This marks the formal inclusion of digital assets into the anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance regulatory framework, and the regulatory boundaries will be further clarified through technological pathways. This may suppress market sentiment in the short term, but long-term benefits are expected for compliant quality assets to gain structural premiums, and technology-driven projects are likely to benefit from improvements in regulatory efficiency.

2. SEC delays decision on crypto ETF, institutional layout rhythm slows down.

The U.S. SEC has made a decision to delay several crypto ETF applications. Such actions typically trigger cautious market sentiment, leading to short-term volatility and an increase in the wait-and-see atmosphere. However, the gradual clarification of regulatory direction will enhance compliance expectations, only temporarily controlling the layout rhythm of institutional investors without changing the long-term entry trend.

3. Live broadcast precisely layouts short positions, the market verifies the effectiveness of the strategy.

Last night at 8:30, the live broadcast clearly pointed out: BTC short at 116-117K, ETH short at 4360-4400. The market rebounded in the early morning, accurately reaching the entry point, and all short positions were executed. The ETH short position has currently gained more than 160 points, confirming the judgment of the short-term bearish trend.

2. BTC Technical Aspect: Bearish volume breaks out, with 112K being the short-term lifeline.

Trend signals and volume verification.

BTC rebounded to near the weekend horizontal low point in the early morning and then fell back, confirming significant selling pressure within the oscillation range. The technical aspect shows three major bearish characteristics:

  • Breakout and moving average warning: The daily line has broken below the weekend horizontal low point, and the 7-day moving average is about to form a death cross with the 14-day moving average, indicating a clear bearish trend in the short term.

  • Volume Reveals Sentiment: The weekend rebound saw a shrinking trading volume indicating weakness, while yesterday's decline was accompanied by significant volume, with bearish sentiment being released concentratedly;

  • Indicators Strengthen Bearish Momentum: MACD death cross diverging downward, histogram's negative values continue to amplify, bearish willingness is increasing, but the fast and slow lines are still above the zero axis, indicating that the medium to long-term bullish structure has not been completely destroyed.

Targets and intra-day strategies.

The short-term first target directly points to 112K (early month support + 14-day moving average). If it breaks down, it is highly likely to retest the 105-107K range. The 4-hour line has repeatedly surged and then retreated, and the short position at 116.5K is already profitable. The key support to focus on during the day is 113K, and if the rebound is weak, continue to short.

3. ETH Technical Aspect: Short position gains 160 points, with the 4150 platform support becoming key.

Analysis of the downward structure and defensive positions.

ETH perfectly verifies yesterday's strategy: The highest touched 4388 in the early morning, with the 4380 short position currently gaining 160 points. The technical aspect shows a clear downward trend:

  • Support on the Brink: The daily line has initially broken below the 14-day moving average and is about to test the 4150 platform support. If it breaks down, it could drop to the psychological level of 4000.

  • Capital Outflow Signal: Since mid-August, the decline has been accompanied by increased volume, and the rebound volume continues to shrink. Yesterday's trading volume increased, indicating accelerated capital outflow.

  • Indicators Deepen Bearishness: MACD death cross downward, histogram turned negative today, not yet entering the oversold range, and the short-term bearish trend continues.

4-hour rhythm and operational opportunities.

4-hour line shows a clear downward structure, with highs sequentially at 4780→4680→4580→4380. The upper key resistance to focus on during the day is 4280, and short positions can continue to be laid out with a defensive reference at 4350.

4. Altcoins: The pullback space is limited, waiting for mainstream offloading period to catch the rebound window.

Currently, altcoins are overall in a pullback phase, but the downward space is controllable, and opportunities require patience. The core logic is:

  • Mainstream adjustment nature is clear: The probability of mainstream coins directly entering a bear market is extremely low. Before this round of significant increases transitions into a bear market, there will inevitably be a 1-3 month high position offloading period, during which large-range oscillations will provide a soil for altcoins to catch up.

  • Interest rate cut expectations support the bottom: The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September is still high. If realized, the current mainstream adjustment may be 'building strength for new highs', enabling altcoins to take advantage of this.

  • Layout timing reminder: Need to wait for clear signals indicating the end of mainstream adjustments (such as BTC stabilizing above 112K, ETH holding 4150, and volume shrinking) before entering to capture high-efficiency targets and reduce risks during the pullback phase.

Risk Warning: The crypto market is significantly affected by regulatory policies and short-term sentiment. The above analysis is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Operations must strictly enforce profit-taking, stop-loss, and position management.#加密市场回调