According to Deep潮 TechFlow news, on August 20, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that the U.S. July inflation data shows that service sector costs and prices of tariff-related goods continue to rise, with core inflation hitting a six-month high and the Producer Price Index (PPI) also exceeding expectations. Corporate profit margins are further pressured, indicating that inflation stickiness still exists, posing challenges to the Federal Reserve's policy path in the September meeting, and the market's expectations for rapid interest rate cuts may be overly optimistic.
Against this backdrop, investors are highly focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium this Friday. Evercore ISI Chief Strategist Julian Emanuel points out that this is a significant risk event. If Powell reiterates that 'inflation remains the top priority,' the market may experience a sharp decline reminiscent of the 2022 Jackson Hole speech. Even if Powell suggests a potential 25 basis point rate cut in September, if he denies the possibility of a 50 basis point cut, the risk of a short-term market correction still exists. Emanuel expects the stock market may see a 7% to 15% correction before October, consistent with traditional autumn weakness characteristics.
Despite strong corporate earnings in the U.S. and the stock market approaching historical highs, potential risks are increasing due to high valuations, persistent inflation pressures, and differences in policy expectations. The current dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index has risen to 25.5 times, reaching the highest range since 2000. In this uncertain environment, some strategy institutions recommend hedging risks by buying October put options on the Nasdaq 100 index (QQQ) to guard against potential adjustments in the fall market.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market is in a sensitive macro environment. Bitcoin faces resistance at historical highs and has entered a range-bound fluctuation; Ethereum is performing well, but altcoins lack structural funding support. As uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path increases, the market must remain cautious about short-term optimism. In the coming week, the Jackson Hole meeting may become a market barometer, and investors should closely monitor the signals released by Powell's speech.