Who can tell 'Mr. Too Late' Jerome Powell that he is seriously harming the real estate industry? Because of him, people cannot obtain mortgages. Inflation has not appeared, and all signs indicate that interest rates should drop significantly. U.S. President Trump again harshly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Tuesday. This power struggle over interest rate policy has reached a climax, with Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market standing at the forefront of an epic storm.#鲍威尔发言
One. Seven years of grievances: the power confrontation between the President and the Fed Chairman:
1. The conflict between Trump and Powell has long been public, but this week's confrontation has reached an unprecedented intensity. Trump not only harshly criticized Powell on social media as 'Mr. Too Late' but also directly accused him of severely harming the real estate industry.
2. This seven-year feud stems from an ironic fact: Powell was personally nominated by Trump as Federal Reserve Chairman in 2018. At that time, Trump expected a supporter of low interest rates, not the independent central bank president maintaining rates in the 4.25%-4.50% range today.
3. Now, Trump openly expresses his sense of betrayal; this person once told me, 'Sir, I will keep interest rates at a very low level. I am a supporter of low interest rates, sir.'
Two. September rate cuts: the collision of market expectations and political realities:
1. Despite Trump's ongoing pressure, Powell maintains the independence of the Federal Reserve. After the July meeting, the Federal Reserve announced it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time.
2. However, market trends are changing. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points next month, almost a certainty, and at least one more cut by the end of the year.
3. This expectation stems from changes in U.S. economic data. Since the dismal non-farm payroll data was released earlier this month, Wall Street traders have been betting heavily that the Federal Reserve will soon cut rates. Despite last week's unexpectedly strong PPI inflation data causing some economists to hesitate, the weak job market has opened the door for Powell to deliver more dovish remarks at this week's Jackson Hole meeting.
Three. The opportunity in the game between fiat currency and cryptocurrency:
1. The Trump administration is not only focused on traditional monetary policy but also has ambitious cryptocurrency agendas. According to market analysis, Trump plans to establish a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, aiming to acquire up to 1 million Bitcoins, accounting for about 5% of the total supply, over the next five years.
2. This bold move could redefine the landscape of global financial markets, promote the legitimization of cryptocurrencies as an asset class, and significantly impact Bitcoin prices.
3. Trump's Bitcoin reserve plan partially aims to combat China's dominance in the cryptocurrency mining sector, which could lead to escalating geopolitical tensions and further highlight Bitcoin's strategic value in the global financial system.
Four. Investment insights, the crypto market welcomes a new opportunity.
For cryptocurrency investors, this struggle between monetary policy and political power creates unique opportunities:
Expectations for a weaker dollar are strengthening. If Trump successfully forces Powell to cut rates or replace the Federal Reserve leadership, the dollar may weaken, and historically, Bitcoin tends to perform strongly during periods of dollar weakness.
Inflation risks are rising. Trump's tariff policies have already increased inflation expectations, and rate cuts may further exacerbate inflationary pressures, enhancing Bitcoin's appeal as a store of value.
Policy risk premium. According to Deutsche Bank analysis, if Trump forcibly replaces Powell, the dollar index could plummet by 3%-4%, and such instability in fiat currency may highlight the safe-haven attributes of cryptocurrencies.
Brother Lei's analysis:
Brothers, Trump is at it again! This time he directly named Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, calling him 'Mr. Too Late,' accusing him of dragging his feet on rate cuts and causing ordinary people to be unable to get loans. This guy is really anxious; he even used the word 'disaster.' If you ask me, this is a huge positive for our crypto space! Why? Think about it, why is Trump desperately pushing for rate cuts? Isn't it to increase the amount of money in circulation? Once the faucet is turned on, the first things to rise will be either housing or Bitcoin!
To be honest, I think Trump is more dedicated than many KOLs in the crypto space, constantly finding ways to push for rate cuts. This time he directly stated that all signs point to the absence of inflation, isn't that like telling the Federal Reserve to stop pretending to be asleep and start easing?
Although the Federal Reserve is currently acting aloof and has not changed interest rates for five consecutive times, the market has already voted with real money—there is an over 80% probability of a rate cut in September!
This reminds me of 2019 when Trump was criticizing daily, and in the end, Powell did back down, cutting rates three times in a row. Last time, Bitcoin shot up from 9,000 to 14,000. I've already written the script for this time; first, we'll spread some rumors to scare people, and when the rate cuts actually happen, institutions and retail investors will definitely rush to get on board.
Brothers, remember these key points:
First, do not leverage too much. The volatility is high now, making it easy to get liquidated; I've seen too many people who wanted to make a fortune overnight end up losing everything.
Second, pay attention to Trump's Bitcoin plan. I heard he wants to establish a national Bitcoin reserve; if that happens, it would be a super positive signal!
The Jackson Hole annual meeting will kick off this Thursday evening. Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday morning at 10 AM, 10 PM Beijing time, which could be his last appearance as Federal Reserve Chairman.
Regardless of whether Powell stays or goes, the advancement of Trump's rate-cut agenda has become a certainty. The combination of loose monetary policy and Trump's Bitcoin strategic reserve plan is creating a perfect storm for the cryptocurrency market.
As the foundations of the traditional financial system are shaken, crypto assets are becoming the beneficiaries of the new order.
