磊哥说币

惊天交割夜！58亿期权火药桶引爆，ETH冲锋4000刀，巨鲸狂砸96亿BTC暗藏杀机？
今天有4.1万张BTC期权和24万张ETH期权要到期，总名义价值58亿美元。BTC最大痛点是114，000美元，ETH是2950美元。ETH价格已经突破3650美元了，带动山寨币回暖，BTC则维持在12万美元历史高位附近震荡。这次期权交割规模占总持仓10%以上。波动率数据也值得关注 - BTC隐含波动率维持在40%，而ETH的飙升至70%。市场情绪明显转向乐观，期权市场出现FOMO情绪。今年3月底那次季度交割后，市场曾因缺乏新资金和新叙事而持续低迷。不过这次情况似乎不同，ETH现货ETF单日净流入创下6.02亿美元的历史第二高纪录，这可能是推动ETH上涨的重要因素。ETH上涨时，通常会有一些山寨币跟涨。常见的跟涨币种包括LINK、UNI、MKR等ETH生态代币，以及DOGE、PEPE等Meme币。Base生态的AERO、BRETT、TOSHI也值得关注。还有个巨鲸动向 - 一个“中本聪时代”的比特币巨鲸最近将最后40，192枚BTC（约48.3亿美元）存入Galaxy Digital。加上前几天的转移，总共转移了80，201枚BTC（约96亿美元）这么大动作值得关注。Ripple联合创始人Chris Larsen也在大量转移XRP - 今天凌晨又转了价值2600万美元的XRP到Coinbase。XRP今早突破了3.40美元，创历史新高。美国众议院刚通过了三项加密货币法案，SEC主席也表态考虑为创新项目设立监管豁免。这些监管动向对市场是利好。代币化也是一个热点。Ondo Finance要在Sei区块链上线其USDY国债代币化产品，总锁仓价值超过6.8亿美元。

58亿美金“绞肉机”启动，多空决战最大痛点！
今夜7月18日全球币圈迎来史诗级期权交割4.1万张BTC期权名义价值49.3亿美金，最大痛点11.4万刀！Put Call Ratio仅0.78，24万张ETH期权名义价值8.8亿美金，最大痛点2950刀！Put Call Ratio达1.0

磊哥分析：
BTC现价紧贴12万历史高点，ETH冲破3650刀，庄家压盘意图赤裸！若收盘价高于最大痛点，空头将遭百亿级轧空反之，多头血洗开始！散户速盯ETH 2950、BTC 11.4万两大生死线！ETH现货ETF单日狂吸6.02亿美金，创历史第二高！贝莱德ETHA独占5.47亿，机构FOMO情绪炸裂。隐含波动率（IV）飙至70%，碾压BTC的40%，期权卖方瑟瑟发抖。

山寨币群魔乱舞：
LINK、UNI、MKR等DeFi老炮单周暴涨30%！Base生态MEM龙头BRETT、TOSHI单日翻倍8！

磊哥埋伏策略:
ETH突破3650后，3大跟涨妖币已启动——AEROBase生态DeFi之王：机构OTC抢筹，目标价$1.5！WLDAI+身份协议：OpenAI创始人Altman站台，底部放量！PEPE文化级MEME：链上巨鲸囤货1.2万亿枚，末日战车启动！
巨鲸96亿BTC异动SEC突放“核弹级利好:
中本聪时代巨鲸苏醒4天内狂抛8万枚BTC（96亿美金）至Galaxy Digital，疑为对冲期权风险。

磊哥总结：
4.1万张BTC期权+24万张ETH期权今晚到期，总价值58亿美金（约420亿人民币）！庄家底牌BTC 11.4万刀、ETH 2950刀是最大痛点庄家最赚钱的价格。现在BTC卡在12万历史新高、ETH冲到3650，明显高于痛点！如果收盘价站稳，空头得跪着赔钱要是砸破痛点，多头裤衩都输光！就像赌场开盘，庄家说今晚ETH收盘≥2950，我通杀空头要是＜2950，我活埋多头！ 现在ETH冲到3650，空头已经腿软了！
美国ETF大佬疯狂充值贝莱德单日狂买35亿人民币ETH！波动率爆表70%BTC才40%，相当于ETH绑着火箭玩蹦极——要么上天，要么入土！山寨币咋跟风老炮翻身LINK、UNI这些过气明星一周怒涨30%！土狗乱飞Base链上BRETT、TOSHI这种 meme币一天翻倍

巨鲸砸盘96亿！是危还是机？沉睡10年的比特币远古巨鲸，4天狂抛8万个BTC（96亿）！这货是转给Galaxy Digital机构托管，大概率是对冲期权风险，不是跑路！
 
交割夜不是结局，是机构重新发牌的赌桌。关注磊哥不踩坑！！！

#期权交割明牌  #ETH杀疯

Trump calls Powell a fool and has repeatedly demanded rate cuts without success, now resorting to verbal attacks. Trump wants the interest rate to drop to around 1%, while it is currently at 4.50%, with each additional point costing an extra 36 million dollars. Powell stated he will not resign and will serve until the end of his term next year. Trump may want to fire the Federal Reserve Chairman but lacks the authority. On July 16, Trump did consider removing Powell and even showed prepared letters to lawmakers, causing a market sell-off across stocks, currencies, and bonds. However, later that day he backtracked, saying he didn’t intend to do so but didn’t rule out any possibilities. There are internal disagreements in the Fed about rate cuts. Governor Waller surprisingly said a 25 basis point cut should occur in July, aligning with Trump's views. However, other officials like Kugler and Williams stated that they should pause rate cuts for a while. Big moves are happening in the crypto space! The U.S. House of Representatives has just passed three major cryptocurrency bills, including a genius bill regulating stablecoins. There are also rumors that Trump plans to sign an executive order allowing 401k retirement plans to invest in cryptocurrencies, gold, and other alternative assets. Interestingly, analysts at JPMorgan believe that whether Powell is fired is no longer important, as the market has already begun pricing in the policies of the next chairman. Regardless of who takes over, the dovish support for loose monetary policy will only grow. The Trump administration accuses the Federal Reserve headquarters of luxurious waste in renovations, to which Powell responded in writing that the project has been under strict supervision since it was approved in 2017.

Recently, there have indeed been institutions hoarding ETH on a large scale. A giant whale hoarded 103,141 ETH worth $323.8 million through FalconX within 6 days, at an average price of $3,140. Meanwhile, another address hoarded 103,274 ETH worth $298 million at an average price of $2,885, and this address recently bought another 14,982 ETH. The behaviors of these two addresses are highly similar, possibly indicating the same institution. The price of ETH has risen from $2,500 in July to $3,600 now, partly due to these institutions collecting. More institutions are taking action. SharpLink Gaming holds 280,706 ETH, with 99.7% staked. Peter Thiel's BitMine company holds 163,142 ETH. Traditional financial institutions are also turning to Ethereum. Standard Chartered Bank recently announced the launch of a digital asset trading platform for institutional clients, becoming the first large bank to offer physical ETH trading. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has also changed his attitude towards cryptocurrencies. There is strong inflow into Ethereum ETFs. On July 10, there was a total net inflow of $383 million into U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs in one day, with BlackRock's ETHA contributing $300.9 million. Analysts predict that once ETH can be staked in ETFs and generate income, conservative institutions such as pension funds and insurance companies will also participate. The market expects staking ETFs to be approved before October 2025. The total market cap of stablecoins has surpassed $260 billion, with Tether USDT exceeding $160 billion. As the core platform of the stablecoin ecosystem, Ethereum will benefit from this growth. Regarding U.S. policy, there may be considerations to include Ethereum in the strategic reserve, potentially starting through an executive order as early as the second half of 2025, or possibly completing legislative processes between 2027 and 2028.

Fidelity's internet-level prophecy states Bitcoin is only halfway up the hill, with a hundred-fold wave behind!

#BTC、

Fidelity's global macro director Jurrien Timmer dropped a deep-sea bomb, bluntly stating that Bitcoin's growth trajectory is highly similar to the internet adoption curve, and is currently only at the midpoint of the entire curve. What does this mean? During the internet's midpoint from 2000 to 2010, giants like Google and Amazon were born, and Bitcoin is now at the same historical juncture! Fidelity further reveals that the power law curve of Bitcoin wallet numbers remains valid, and the demand model shows that the growth of million-level users is still accelerating, with institutional whales just raising their sickles!

#TRUMP
Trump's personal attack on blockchain games! The subdomain Trumpthegame has been exposed, and TRUMP coin whales are already lurking, retail investors have one last chance!
In April, Fortune magazine reported that Trump's crypto project would be a real estate video game. Trump particularly enjoys Monopoly and released Trump The Game board game in 1989, and in 2006 he wanted to create a reality show styled after Monopoly. It seems this game project could have a similar feel to Monopoly. Let's take a look at the TRUMP coin itself. This meme coin was launched on Solana three days before Trump took office as president in January. Its market value soared to $14.5 billion within two days of issuance, but it later fluctuated greatly, plummeting from $75 to $7.5 at one point. The total supply is 1 billion coins, with the Trump family controlling 80%. That ratio is too high! They also designed a 0.3% transaction tax mechanism, with the transaction fees automatically transferred to a wallet controlled by the Trump family. In just April of this year, it generated $43 million in revenue for them. In May, Trump hosted a dinner for top 220 coin holders. The news caused TRUMP coin to surge nearly 60% within 24 hours. Justin Sun, the founder of TRON, became the largest holder with 1.43 million TRUMP coins valued at approximately $19.67 million and attended the dinner. What is the price now? Data from July 16 shows TRUMP at around $10.12. In April of this year, it reached $13.12, with a market value of $2.6 billion, ranking 37th. Additionally, the Trump family is deeply involved in the crypto space. Besides TRUMP coin, they have also issued NFT digital trading cards, established a cryptocurrency joint venture, invested in Ethereum and TRON, and recently partnered with mining company Hut to establish a Bitcoin mining company.

#ETH
Ethereum (ETH) violently broke through $3,500, leaving shorts in a bloodbath!
LD Capital founder JackYi's prediction has come true again! A month ago, he accurately called that 'ETH will explode against shorts', and now ETH has strongly broken through $3,000, nearing the $3,500 mark, with short positions suffering massive losses! Market sentiment has ignited instantly, with FOMO (fear of missing out) spreading wildly, retail and institutional investors collectively rushing to buy, can ETH challenge $4,000?

Why did ETH suddenly surge? How were the shorts wiped out?
JackYi said a month ago that ETH would explode against shorts, and now it has come true! ETH surged from $3,000 to $3,500, leaving those who shorted with nothing left. Why is it so intense? Three reasons:

News Front

I. The 'Nuclear Bomb' Shockwave of Tariff Policy
Structural Disruption
Trump's 'one-size-fits-all' tariffs (10%-15% covering 150 countries) essentially reconstruct the trade system, potentially escalating to targeted tariffs of 48% (e.g., women's clothing, books) on August 1, which will directly impact the cost structure of global supply chains.
Historical backtesting shows: After the implementation of steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018, the U.S. manufacturing input cost index soared by 23%, and the current average tariff of 18% has exceeded levels seen in 1934.
Inflation Transmission Mechanism
The Yale model reveals: For every 1% increase in tariffs, the U.S. core CPI will lag by 6 months and rise by 0.3%-0.5%. A 22% tariff on baked goods implies that food inflation may exceed 7% in the next 12 months.

"Musk is up to something big again! The AI girlfriend concept explodes in the crypto world, is the next hundredfold opportunity a windfall or a trap for retail investors?"

Brothers, Brother Lei just uncovered some explosive news - Musk's Neuralink team is reportedly secretly developing an 'AI girlfriend' project, combining large models and brain-computer interfaces, claiming to customize your 'cyber wife'! Once the news broke, AI + Web3 concept tokens surged collectively, with $RNDR increasing by 40% in one day, $AGIX rising by 28%, and even the old metaverse token $SAND came back to life!

Does this script look familiar? Last year when ChatGPT exploded, $FET skyrocketed from $0.2 to $1.2! But Brother Lei reminds you to pay attention to the details:

When the policy winds shift, the market surges! The latest developments on the three major cryptocurrency bills in the U.S. may reshape the industry's rules of the game.

(GENIUS Act) — The 'identity card' for stablecoins is coming soon!
This bill essentially sets regulations for stablecoins (like USDT, USDC), clarifying who regulates and how they do it. It has already passed the debate in the House and will have a final vote on July 18. If passed, stablecoin issuers may face stricter compliance requirements, but industry chaos will likely decrease.
Brother Lei's view: In the short term, it may scare off some unconventional projects, but in the long run, compliance will encourage large institutions to enter the market. Consider how PayPal's stock surged when it launched its stablecoin last year; clear policies signal the entry of large capital!

"Markets are born in despair and explode in hesitation—this wave of ETH from 2950 to 3400 once again proves that bull market pullbacks are golden opportunities!"

A few days ago when Lei Ge was calling trades, many brothers were still murmuring: 'It's already dropped to 2950, how can you still be bullish?' The result? ETH jumped directly three times, hitting 3100, 3200, and 3400! Those who followed the operations at least doubled their accounts. For example, community member Lao Li rolled his 50,000 USDT into 72,000 USDT and sent a red envelope last night saying, 'Lei Ge can sniff out opportunities better than my dog.'
(Hardcore breakdown of the current market)
Now at the 3400 mark, it's like climbing a mountain and nearing the summit:

"In a bull market, it's not about hand speed, but about knowledge that determines wealth and freedom! Today's two projects may be a great opportunity to ambush Alpha in the second half of the year - but 90% of people will fall into the trap!"

1️⃣ BAS Project - "ID Card Issuing Agency" on the BNB Chain
What is it used for? It helps you get on-chain authentication (for example, to prove that you are a real person and not a robot), which is both private and secure.
Who is backing them? Binance’s own company + BNB chain ecosystem transfusion, and there are also several powerful sponsors in the hackathon sponsor list (such as zkPass for zero-knowledge proof).
How to participate?
There will be a pre-sale of 3BNB at 4pm (locked and cannot be sold, suitable for long-term gambling)

"The market is always changing, but opportunities are only reserved for those who understand the signals—U.S. tariffs increasing, the bill being enacted, Binance making big moves at midnight; behind these three bombs lies the biggest wealth code for 2025!"

1. The U.S. tariff war escalates again; will commodities fall first?

Last night, the White House suddenly announced a 30% tariff on electric vehicles from China, followed by tariffs on aluminum and chips, causing Chinese stocks in the U.S. to plunge. Interestingly, Bitcoin rose by 2%—the market is clearly indicating: the more chaotic traditional trade becomes, the more capital flows into the crypto market!
(Case study) Last year's 2024 tariff war saw gold and Bitcoin rise simultaneously by 15%; history may repeat itself this time.

"No matter how powerful the computing power, it cannot compete with the ironclad walls of mathematics; Satoshi Nakamoto's 'digital safe' remains the hardest bone in the blockchain world!"

Today, a buddy @CtrlAltDwayne had a wild idea to let Musk's AI tool Grok crack Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin wallet (which supposedly holds 1 million bitcoins, worth over $60 billion!). The result? Grok poured cold water on it: even if all the computers on Earth worked together, it would take 10^52 years to brute-force a 256-bit private key—by then, the universe would have reset N times. Optimizing the algorithm? At least another trillion years! Musk replied with a crying-laughing 😂 emoji, and Grok added: "If anyone could open this wallet, it would probably only be my boss, Musk himself."

The market is like a weather forecast; the cooling PPI suggests inflation is "subsiding," but the crypto market is as hot as midsummer—within the alternating heat and cold lies the wealth code for the second half of the year.
1. U.S. PPI Data: Inflation brakes, is there hope for a rate cut in September?
June PPI year-on-year at 2.3% (expected 2.5%), monthly rate drops to zero, indicating upstream production costs are stagnant. This data gives the Federal Reserve an out: won't cut rates in September? Business owners and consumers will be furious! However, the CEO of Bank of America poured cold water on this, saying "don't expect rate cuts before next year". In my view, Wall Street and the Fed are still playing 'wolf is coming,' but the market has already bet on easing.

"Selling shares is not exiting the market, but rather changing posture to bet on the future—every move by the big players has meticulous calculations behind it."

NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang has recently sold shares again! According to SEC filings, he sold 225,000 shares over three consecutive days in July, cashing out about $38 million. He now plans to sell another 75,000 shares. This is actually part of his previously established 'selling plan' from March (with a maximum of 6 million shares that can be sold), which is a compliant operation, not a spur-of-the-moment decision.
[Personal Opinion]
Don't panic, it's just a routine: The 10b5-1 rule serves as an 'anti-spray shield' for executives; pre-reported selling plans can avoid suspicions of insider trading. Jensen Huang's recent moves are akin to those of Musk and Zuckerberg, representing 'regularly harvesting dividends,' not a bearish outlook on the company.

'The regulatory scythe swings towards anonymity, and the 'transparency' of the crypto world has become a foregone conclusion — compliant entities live, while those in the dark die!'

The EU is serious this time! The newly established Anti-Money Laundering Agency (AMLA) has made a strong statement: all exchanges and wallet platforms must honestly reveal their 'hidden cards'. Simply put, there are three main things:
Identity verification: Shareholders and actual controllers must disclose their identities to prevent dirty money from entering (for example, the 'certain exchange explosion case' involving shell companies for money laundering serves as a cautionary tale);

Ban on anonymity: Privacy coins (like Monero XMR) and anonymous wallets are directly sentenced to 'death', and future transfers may have to adopt a 'real-name system' like banks;

'Data is a cold splash of water, and the market's eyes light up—when PPI meets CPI, the Federal Reserve's 'Inflation Puzzle' is being torn open to reveal a new corner!'

The U.S. June PPI (Producer Price Index) data has just been released, and the results are shocking: Service industry prices have been a drag, causing overall data and core data to 'lie flat' month-on-month, even falling short of market expectations. It's like a restaurant owner suddenly being afraid to raise prices and secretly removing two dishes (for example, there are clear price cuts in hotel and logistics services). More dramatically, just a few days ago, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) data showed that tariffs added during Trump's term have quietly made home appliances and furniture more expensive—one brother shouts 'up', the other shouts 'down', leaving the Federal Reserve utterly confused.

When political games collide with monetary policy, the market is like a tightrope-walking acrobat—any misstep can lead to chaos!
Recently, Trump has fired again, directly naming Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, saying the headquarters renovation has exceeded budget and that he should be held accountable, even suggesting his removal (case in point: just like in 2020 when Trump threatened to replace Powell). Now, the market is most worried not about interest rate hikes or cuts, but whether the Federal Reserve can withstand political pressure to maintain its independence—just like a football referee who gets yelled at by the team owner will hesitate the next time they blow the whistle.

"SOL high position warning! MACD has turned green + death cross risk, is a pullback imminent?"
"The higher the market rises, the tighter you should fasten your seatbelt! The current price of SOL is like walking a tightrope on stilts; it looks exciting, but falling down hurts!"

Technical signal:
The MACD indicator has recently "turned green" (the histogram has turned negative), indicating that the bears have started to roll up their sleeves. If this continues, a "death cross" (the fast line crossing below the slow line) may occur, and then the pullback will be truly unstoppable.
Last month, SOL's MACD played this way too, resulting in a 15% drop in a week; this time, we need to remember the lesson!

Eating with BTC:

"There are no winners in a trade war, but financial markets will always bet on the losers in advance— the 'tariff shock' to eurozone GDP may just be the beginning."
#关税大战 #关税大限
"Is the 'August 1 deadline' real or fake?"
The EU and the US are like two quarreling tycoons, threatening to smash each other's businesses (by imposing tariffs). If no agreement is reached before August 1, the EU's first wave of retaliation will be: 'If you raise my steel tariffs, I will raise your jeans and whiskey.'
But don't panic! Such 'deadlines' often play tricks and could be delayed until after the US elections (politicians love to play the 'delay tactic').