Ethereum fell more than 5% this Tuesday, breaching key technical levels below $4,200, pressured by:

Technical sales.

Massive staking exits.

Institutional withdrawals.

Since its near $4,800 peak, ETH has retraced more than 10%, with long liquidations exceeding $1.1 billion.

Fundamental factors

1. Powell's speeches in Jackson Hole

The Fed chair will speak this Friday.

The 7-day implied volatility jumped from 68% to 73% (Derive).

The probability of a rate cut in September fell from 90% to 82% (CME FedWatch).

Powell's tone could be the catalyst for the next big move in ETH.

2. Record exit queue of validators

Almost 910,000 ETH are waiting to exit the staking system.

This amounts to $3.9 billion, with delays of more than 15 days.

This reflects that validators are seeking liquidity, which could increase selling pressure.

3. Massive withdrawals in Ethereum ETFs

ETH ETFs recorded a record outflow of $197 million in one day.

It is the second-largest exit since its inception.

Institutions are cautious amid macro uncertainty.

Trading considerations

Scenario: Bearish

Strategic keys: Technical breakout + exit queue pressure + institutional outflows could push ETH towards $4,000.

Scenario: Bullish

Strategic keys: A dovish Powell and a macro rebound could allow ETH to recover $4,200 and seek consolidation zones at $4,300–$4,500.

✅ Practical tips:

Watch support at $4,100–$4,200 and resistance at $4,300–$4,500.

Consider DCA for the long term.

Use stop-loss and limit orders on Binance to protect positions.

Market sentiment

Traders expect a volatile end of August:

The accumulation in the exit queue suggests structured exits, not panic.

Some are seeking liquidity to return via ETFs or derivatives.

The market is in caution mode, with eyes fixed on Jackson Hole.

Conclusion

Ethereum faces a cocktail of pressures:

Uncertain monetary policy.

Staking and ETF withdrawals.

Bearish technical signals.

Powell's speech will be the spark that can ignite the next big wave in ETH — either bearish towards $4,000 or bullish towards $4,500.

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