August 19th Chuan Ge Research Report
Fundamental situation:
1. The U.S. Treasury is publicly soliciting opinions on new measures to combat illegal activities related to digital assets. Based on the newly passed GENIUS Stablecoin Act, the U.S. Treasury has launched a 60-day public consultation to gather suggestions from industry insiders and the public regarding 'curbing illegal activities in the cryptocurrency space', including money laundering and sanctions evasion. This move marks the formal inclusion of digital assets into the regulatory frameworks for anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance in the U.S., and plans to clarify the specific scope of regulation through technical means. Against this backdrop, compliant high-quality assets may see structural value increases, although the market may be filled with cautious sentiment in the short term, while technology-driven projects are expected to benefit from this. The improved regulatory efficiency will also help curb the illegal use of digital assets.
2. The U.S. SEC has postponed decisions on multiple cryptocurrency ETF applications. Typically, such delays will make market sentiment more cautious, leading to increased volatility and a wait-and-see atmosphere in the short term. However, this will also gradually clarify the regulatory direction, enhancing market expectations for compliance, and thus controlling the pacing of institutional investors' positioning.
3. In last night's 8:30 live broadcast, it was clearly indicated that short positions could be taken at the 116 - 117 level for Bitcoin, and at the 4360 - 4400 level for Ethereum. In the early morning, the market saw a rebound, and the short positions placed in the evening were all executed, making the feeling of profit in the live broadcast very satisfying!
Technical analysis:
BTC: The rebound in the early morning just touched the low point of the weekend's sideways range before starting to pull back, indicating significant selling pressure in the weekend's consolidation zone. On the daily chart, yesterday breached the weekend's low point slightly, continuing yesterday's downward trend today, with the 7-day moving average turning down, about to form a death cross. During the weekend's rebound, trading volume shrank, while yesterday's decline saw a noticeable increase in volume, indicating insufficient market rebound momentum and a strong bearish sentiment during the decline. The MACD indicator has formed a death cross and is running downwards, with the histogram's negative values starting to expand, showing that current market bearish intentions are strengthening. However, the fast and slow lines remain above the 0 axis, so from a medium to long-term perspective, the market is still in a bullish trend. The short-term trend is clearly bearish, with the first target to watch below being around 112K; if this level is lost, there's a high probability of a retest of the 105 - 107K range. Looking at the 4-hour chart, after multiple highs in the early morning, it has pulled back, with short positions at 116.5K already executed, and it is still continuing to decline, about to form a large bearish candle with an upper shadow. Today, attention should be paid to the support situation at 113K.
ETH: Yesterday's research report clearly pointed out that attention should be paid to the pressure at the 4360 - 4400 level to seize short opportunities. The price peaked at 4388 in the early morning; we executed a short position at 4380 and have already made a profit of over 160 points, still holding the position. The daily K-line shows a significant downward momentum, having initially breached the 14-day moving average, and is about to face support at the 4150 level. If this support level is lost, the next focus will be on the 4000-point round number. In terms of volume, since mid-August, the price decline has been accompanied by increasing volume, while volume shrinks during rebounds, indicating strengthening bearish forces. The larger trading volume yesterday means that market funds are accelerating their withdrawal. The MACD indicator has formed a death cross and is running downwards, with today's histogram starting to turn negative, and it has not yet entered the oversold territory, indicating that short-term bearish trends are intensifying. The 4-hour chart shows a clear trend of oscillating downward, with high points continuously declining from 4780 to 4680 down to 4580, until last night's 4380. Today's upward pressure should be focused on the 4280 level to seize short opportunities.
Altcoin situation:
Currently, altcoins still have a demand for correction, but the correction space is limited, and there are still opportunities, though patience is required. Mainstream coins are in a phase of adjustment, and the likelihood of directly entering a bear market is relatively small. Similar to this significant surge, mainstream coins will inevitably undergo a distribution process before entering a bear market, which may last from one month to three months, and it is during the high-level range consolidation that altcoins have the opportunity for a catch-up. At the same time, the probability of interest rate cuts in September is relatively high; if the rate cuts are implemented, the current adjustment of mainstream coins may very well be a buildup of strength, preparing for further new highs in the subsequent trends. Entering the market at the right time can not only achieve twice the result with half the effort but also reduce risk and increase returns. Therefore, it is important to patiently wait for the signal indicating the end of this round of mainstream coin adjustment before entering and positioning in altcoins!
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; caution is advised for market entry. The above is merely personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice, provided for sharing and discussion purposes.
