Fundamentals:
1. The US Treasury Secretary stated that they plan to use tariff revenues to pay off national debt, thereby reducing the proportion of the deficit in GDP. If tariff revenues are indeed used to slow down the pace of issuing debt or to reduce net financing scale, US Treasury yields are likely to trend downwards, and their volatility may also narrow. This would increase market risk appetite, which would be favorable for risk assets like BTC and ETH. However, if trade tensions escalate, pushing up inflation levels and increasing market uncertainty, US Treasury yields may rise, and the dollar may strengthen, putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market. These are two completely opposite scenarios.
2. Today's Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 44, shifting from greed to fear. Previously, this index was in the greed range, indicating that market sentiment was overheated, with many investors chasing prices; a drop to 44 indicates mild fear, suggesting recent market selling pressure and pullbacks, causing investors to become cautious, even panicking. A reading of 44 represents 'cold sentiment', which is not systemic panic; during this situation, it is usually a good opportunity to buy on dips after a strong coin's correction, and it is also a critical period to test whether the market trend can continue. If the index continues to drop below 30, the altcoin market may welcome opportunities.
3. In last night's live broadcast at 8:30 PM, we accurately seized the opportunity to short Ethereum at the 4310 position, then took profit at the 4200 point, gaining another 100 points. The current trend continues to hold short positions!
Technical Analysis:
BTC: The price level of 113K mentioned in yesterday's research report has been reached, with the first target at 112K. If it breaks below this level, we can further look towards the 110K integer level, or even back to 105K, which is the support level formed at the beginning of July. As for the 100K mark, it is currently not being considered. Bitcoin is currently in a mid-term correction phase, with yesterday's daily line once again closing with a solid bearish candle, and trading volume has increased again, indicating that selling pressure indeed exists. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines have formed a death cross and are moving downwards, with the gap widening rapidly, and the fast line entering below the 0 axis, with negative energy bars continuously increasing, indicating that the bearish trend is intensifying and continuing. In the short term, if it can stabilize in the 110 - 120K range, the market may attempt to build a double bottom structure for a rebound; if it breaks below this range, it may test the 105K level. From the 4-hour chart, the US trading session has started to show a significant drop in volume, and there is currently a certain degree of rebound. Yesterday during the Asian trading session, it showed a sideways rebound near the 115K level. Today's operations should focus on the pressure at the 114.5 - 115.5K positions to look for shorting opportunities, while the support should be closely monitored at the 111.5 - 110.5K positions.
ETH: After reaching its peak, Ethereum has continuously fallen back with increasing volume, breaking below the previous small platform support level of 4150 in the morning, dipping near the 4000 mark, and the recent targets have been achieved. During this decline, the increase in trading volume from the top indicates that selling pressure is real. The MACD indicator has formed a death cross and continues to expand downwards, with negative energy bars gradually increasing, indicating that the bearish trend is still ongoing. In the short term, we need to pay attention to whether the support at the 4000 level can hold effectively, as there might be a false break to the 3960 position; if it can stabilize here, it may enter a consolidation bottoming phase, but if it breaks below, it will further test 3880. From the 4-hour chart, the overall trend shows a downward move with fluctuations, and there is insufficient trading volume during rebounds while volume increases during declines, indicating a clear rhythm at the stage high. For today's operations, we should focus on the pressure at the 4190 - 4240 positions to look for shorting opportunities, while the support at the 4080 and 3960 positions should also be closely monitored.
Altcoins: The current downtrend of altcoins has noticeably weakened compared to the first half of the year, not because of limited downside space, but due to the relatively small selling pressure in the altcoin market itself. Mainstream coins have had significant increases, so their correction range is also relatively large, with considerable selling pressure. Unless mainstream coins experience a crash, it is unlikely to trigger a significant drop in altcoins; otherwise, the downside space for altcoins is relatively limited. In the near future, I believe that altcoins are likely to usher in a big market movement, possibly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing market liquidity and thus driving the entire market up; or it could be that after mainstream assets take profits, some funds shift to the altcoin market, leading to a rotational rise in altcoins. For now, what we can do is wait for the current round of mainstream coin adjustments to end, and when a new round of bottoming signals appears, it will be our time to re-enter!
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and entry should be cautious. The above content is merely personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice, for sharing and reference only.
