The most taboo thing is to open champagne halfway. The 4200 third leg I gave yesterday only dropped to 4225 before stopping, but I am indeed quite afraid of a negative news piercing through it. However, if there is no negative news, then these three legs will basically be the script for this pullback!

Let me explain again why I set the anchor point $ETH at 4200

The previous movements have been seen by everyone:

First leg: dropped -7%, rebounded 5%

Second leg: another drop, still -7%, then a rebound of 5%

It is already quite obvious that it is following the script of "three waves down." The remaining third leg cannot just be ignored.

How to calculate?
The reference point is not an integer level, but the rebound high point. The second rebound is approximately around 4580, and dropping -7% would bring it to exactly 4260. This position is neither too deep nor too shallow, it pierces through the previous low, sweeps a round of stop losses, and can conveniently harvest a pile of leverage.

If I were to be the dealer, I would do the same:
First, push down to break through → create a long lower shadow or consolidate sideways for a while → slowly raise it up after collecting enough chips. The logic is very straightforward: if the chips are not clean, how can you pull up later?

So my thought process is very simple:
I will keep an eye on the range of 4240–4280.

If it really dips to this level, the first thing to check is whether the selling pressure in the spot market can keep up and if the open interest (OI) evaporates quickly. Once these confirmation signals are in place, I will dare to buy.

If it breaks through 4200 and cannot return, then it indicates that it is not a three-leg script, but something of a larger magnitude, and I must admit my mistake.

This is my judgment, it could be right or wrong, but the logic is this clear.