It really is a critical night, Bitcoin has reached a crossroads.

1⃣ Geopolitical aspect: Zelensky suddenly went to the United States to meet with Trump, adding uncertainty to the Eastern European situation. Historically, in similar situations, the correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 tends to decrease rapidly, and funds may buy it as a safe haven.

2⃣ Over in Europe, the Eurozone trade data will be released at 17:00 today. If the data is poor and the European Central Bank cannot cut interest rates, the euro weakens, and the risk of stablecoins will be magnified. Recently, the reserves of stablecoins on exchanges have also been declining, and USDT liquidity is a bit tight.

3⃣ In the United States, the property index at 2 AM will directly affect the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September. If the data is very bad, the probability of a rate cut will increase, which is negative for the dollar and a potential positive for BTC.

4⃣ On-chain and in derivatives, Bitfinex's short positions are flattening, and Deribit's options positions have already broken $57 billion, with volatility significantly rising. Institutions are mainly betting on three lines: safe-haven buying, a weakening dollar, and stablecoin risk.

So, tonight is not just a simple consolidation night; it will either plunge to wash out the bulls or break through upwards. It all depends on whose strength is greater.

But I stand with the bulls, damn it.