$ETH
Quick assessment of the pump, concerns remain as ATH has not been broken yet
1. Pump structure
Main pump: from 4.2k → nearly 4.9k, moving with 3–4 giant green candles.
Key point: right in the panic low zone (4.200) → where MM accumulates.
After the pump: price is sideways + slight correction, currently pulling back to EMA9 (4.765) for testing.
👉 This is a strong wave structure: the pump paves the way, followed by sideways testing EMA9 to confirm the trend. No signs of distribution yet.
2. Technical indicators
EMA9: Price has just touched EMA9, not closing below the candle → short-term trend is still intact.
EMA21 (4.628): far below, acting as “deep insurance.” If EMA9 is breached, there is a high chance to test EMA21 around 4.6k.
OBV: still high, not dropping → buying pressure has not fully released.
RSI (60): has eased off after RSI was above 80. Now back to neutral level → allows for a new wave.
Stoch K/D: crossing down but not falling deep → could be a technical correction.
3. Continuation scenarios
🔹 Scenario 1 (60%) – Sideways clinging to EMA9, continuing to pump
MM will have the price test EMA9 several times → retail gets used to “catching EMA9.”
When volume gradually decreases → a new wave could break up to 5k.
🔹 Scenario 2 (30%) – Breaking EMA9 to EMA21
If a large red volume candle breaks EMA9 → price will test EMA21 ~4.6k.
This is still a strong trend, but MM will take advantage of the stab to force SL of weak longs.
🔹 Scenario 3 (10%) – Top distribution
Low likelihood because there is no round top, no distribution volume yet.
But if RSI cannot bounce back, and OBV drops sharply, then this pump will be considered a blow-off top.
4. Conclusion
- Already TP providing R:R 1:1, holding positions below, if no positions, should not enter hastily
- If lucky like I mentioned yesterday, the 4.6k mark could very well be the area to sweep for strength, the next sacrificial object to reach new heights