$ETH

Looking at the 15-minute chart, the cutting tool appears very aggressive, but when zooming out to H4, a completely different picture emerges:

1. Position relative to EMA

The price is currently still above EMA9 H4 (≈ 4.759).

There hasn't been an H4 candle that has closed below EMA9 → indicating that the larger trend remains intact and has not confirmed a reversal.

EMA21 (≈ 4.65) and EMA99 (≈ 4.35) are still far below and are not under threat.

2. MM Behavior

MM just aggressively swept in the smaller timeframe (15m) to force retail stop-losses, but then stabilized the price right at the EMA9 H4 range.

This is a tactic to “scare retail” → making them think it’s a reversal → they exit positions, while in reality, the H4 trend has not broken.

In other words: 15m is retail blood, while H4 is the wave leg that MM is protecting.

3. Support Indicators

OBV H4 is still at the top, not sold off → large buying power remains.

RSI H4 ~65: still strong, not overbought or deeply falling.

Red volume after the small cut is gradually decreasing → a sign of no follow-up selling.

4. Scenarios

Scenario 1 (advantage) – Stick to EMA9 H4 and continue running:

The price could sideway a few more candles and then bounce back up to test the 4.9–5.0k range.

Scenario 2 – Break below EMA9 H4:

If there’s a high volume red H4 candle closing firmly below 4.75 → that would be a short-term reversal signal, targeting EMA21 ~4.65.

👉 In summary: H4 EMA9 still holds = the larger wave is still safe.

The 15m dumps are just MM “sweeping retail blood,” scaring the market to clear the way.

Still holding 50% from yesterday 😑 breaking ATH is correct, but breaking only $6 compared to the old ATH is a bit disappointing.