$ETH Based on current market data and institutional analysis, the probability assessment of Ethereum (ETH) falling back **below $2500** is as follows:

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### **1. Short-term (within 1 month) probability: 10%-15%**

- **Key Factors**:

- The current price of ETH is around **$4700**, which is a **47% decline** from $2500, making a significant short-term retracement unlikely.

- **Institutional Support**: Spot ETFs and corporate bonds have absorbed **3.8% of the circulating supply**, providing strong buying support.

- **Technical Analysis**: If it falls below **$4200**, it may drop to **$3600**, but reaching **$2500** would require extreme market panic (such as a black swan event).

**Probability Assessment**: The probability of dropping to **below $2500** in the short term is **10%-15%**, requiring a market crash or major regulatory crackdown to drive it.