This morning, Bitcoin and Ethereum plummeted, and altcoins followed suit! In the last 24 hours, a total of 126,975 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $535 million!
BTC
Bitcoin has lost the critical point of 118,000. This is the extreme point of trading volume, with intense competition between bulls and bears, exerting maximum effort to determine the outcome. Currently, it needs to probe for new demand and build market consensus.
The weekly chart shows clear top signals for BTC, such as long upper shadows and engulfing patterns, indicating a bearish trend. If a dead cross and top divergence are confirmed this week, Bitcoin may fall below $100,000. Although the interest rate meeting and employment data may bring a short-term rebound, the technical outlook still leans downward. The daily chart has not shown an ideal rebound, and it may first rebound before dropping again.
Key price level: if there is no rebound, first look at $112,000; if it breaks below, it may form a large top and drop to $99,000. Historical data shows that breaking below the Vegas channel often presents good opportunities for spot positioning, worthy of attention from long-term investors.
ETH
Ethereum reached its historical high (peak in 2021), the primary task is to defend. Regardless of your cost, do not subjectively believe that it will definitely break through. In actual operations, it is often difficult to judge whether a breakthrough is stable, and it often involves some luck. Therefore, I prefer to protect existing profits rather than betting on a single breakthrough. If it is a true breakthrough, there will be many opportunities later; if it is a false breakthrough, it could lead to significant losses.
Currently, ETH bulls want to defend the weekly breakthrough, such as these key positions around 4150. Bears are always trying to disrupt the structure; today is Monday, and there should be a good show to watch, a battle between bulls and bears. If 4200 cannot hold, the next target will be 3900 (temporarily watch for signs of a bottom before charging).
Why did Ethereum crash today?
A large holder's long position in Ethereum on Hyperliquid is on the verge of liquidation, with a maximum profit exceeding 20 million that has not been taken, now at the edge of liquidation. The liquidation price is 4258, and the price just spiked to 4255, seemingly due to smart money picking up the corpses, leading to a failed liquidation.
Altcoin
The reason why altcoins are so difficult to trade in this round of the bull market is simple—market conditions are not sustained!
Currently, 90% of altcoins in the market, like LPT, rebound dozens of points from the bottom and then drop back, and the rebounds mostly break through resistance levels, creating the illusion for many retail investors that 'the key point has broken, and it will rise.' As a result, the next day falls back to the original point.
After several rounds, retail investors keep stopping losses, and their capital is completely consumed. When the next wave of altcoin market that lasts for a month comes, retail investors think this time it will really rise, reinvest, and get trapped again.
If this continues, the number of people playing altcoins will decrease, and funds will eventually concentrate on a few leading mainstream coins, making the market increasingly polarized.
On-chain
OKB hasn't dropped much, but the meme coins on-chain have collapsed overnight, with only the leader XDOG struggling to hold on.
XDOG is performing really solidly, worthy of being the leader, with a market cap stabilizing over ten million.
LINK
On-chain large players are switching to LINK. On one hand, Ethereum's cost-performance ratio is no longer high, but they still want to compound returns. LINK, which can accommodate large funds and has a versatile narrative, is the preferred choice. At this stage, LINK has income to buy back and is considering doing Treasury first, which is much more reasonable than other altcoins and more suitable for traditional markets to understand. A weekly volume of 1M doesn't seem much, but it injects high expectations into the market, allowing for a bit of low-position layout.
Finally, I want to say
Overall, this round of decline does not mean the end of the bull market, but rather resembles a healthy correction. Fluctuation ≠ peak, correction = accumulation of strength. During the spread of panic, holding key support and stabilizing positions is crucial to standing firm when the next round of market arrives. For long-term investors, the real opportunity may be hidden in the market's most panicked moments.
