I. Current market overview
1. Price and trading volume: Current price oscillates between $115,000 and $117,500, with a daily decline of 2.4%, down 7% from the historical high of $124,128 this week.
Trading volume significantly shrank, with insufficient upward momentum, showing signs of divergence between price and volume, caution against false breakout risks.
2. Technical formation: On the 4-hour level, approaching the ascending trend line support at $115,500; if effectively broken, a major correction may be triggered. Weekly, closed with an inverted hammer candle, suggesting short-term downward adjustment pressure. Resistance area, $119,500-$120,000 is strong resistance, breakout needs volume support.
II. Positive factors:
1. Continuous inflow of institutional funds: BlackRock ETF net inflow offsets Grayscale outflow, Norway's sovereign wealth fund increased its BTC exposure by 83% to 11,400 in Q2.
2. Long-term fundamentals are solid: The trend of corporate buybacks remains unchanged, such as Metaplanet's target holding of 30,000 BTC, and sovereign wealth funds are accelerating their investments.
3. Policy expectations: The Federal Reserve pauses special regulation on cryptocurrencies, and the U.S. relaxes restrictions on banking-related crypto activities.
Negative factors:
1. Macroeconomic pressure: U.S. PPI inflation exceeds expectations, increasing by 3.3% year-on-year, weakening expectations for interest rate cuts in September, with a stronger dollar suppressing risk assets.
2. High leverage risk: Pressure from liquidation in the derivatives market is significant, last week’s crash triggered a $1 billion long liquidation in a single day, and on-chain liquidity is tightening.
3. Technical bearish signals: The evening star pattern is emerging, MA is in a bearish arrangement, RSI is neutral to weak.
III. Divergence in institutional views:
1. Looking at the correction faction: Key support zone, $108,000-$112,000, Fibonacci 50%-61.8% retracement levels + 20-week EMA; if $115,000 is lost, it may test this range. Basis: Weekly inverted hammer structure + price-volume divergence, need to clear excessive leverage.
2. Looking at the consolidation faction: Range-bound oscillation between $115,000 and $119,000 creates conditions for altcoin rotation. Basis: ETF fund rotation is not retreating, and institutional holding costs provide strong support.
IV. Night trading suggestions:
1. Short position strategy: Sell high near the resistance area of $118,200-$119,000, with a stop loss set above $120,000, target $115,500.
2. Long position strategy: Aggressive traders can try a light long position at $115,500, with a stop loss at $114,800.
3. For the cautious: Gradually build positions in the range of $112,500-$113,000, with a stop loss at $111,000.
4. Risk control focus: Keep leverage under 3 times to avoid operations during periods of insufficient liquidity.
V. Future catalysts:
1. Jackson Hole Annual Meeting on August 22: If Federal Reserve Chairman Powell sends a dovish signal, it may rekindle risk appetite.
2. Unemployment data on August 21: If the job market cools, it may strengthen expectations for interest rate cuts, supporting Bitcoin.
3. Long-term target: Institutions generally expect a year-end surge to $140,000-$150,000, with Bernstein revising the 2025 target to $200,000.
Tonight's market is inclined to oscillate downward to test support, with $115,000 as the dividing line between bulls and bears. Short-term focus on macro data and changes in institutional holdings; the mid-term bull market logic remains intact, and deep corrections present a layout opportunity.
