The current bull market may not be over, but it may be revisiting previous highs. Now is the time for speculation, and calls for the Federal Reserve to cut rates are temporarily stalled. Maybe the big players already know a rate cut is coming, intentionally crashing the market to collect cheap chips. Trading should not only focus on the current candlestick; Wall Street's operations are often contrary to retail investors, full of premeditation.
Today's hot opportunities:
1. Everyone's waiting for Powell: speech on the 22nd, a steady rate cut of 0.25% in September.
2. Bitcoin: Michael Saylor may disclose data on Bitcoin accumulation.
3. Solana: The on-chain AMM and Launchpad platform Heaven's native token LIGHT has surpassed a market cap of $130 million; ICO participants have seen returns exceeding 100%.
4. Ethereum: PoS network exit queue has risen to about 850,000+.
5. OKB: Price rebounded to 120+ after falling below 100, Xlayer is hotly discussed on the chain.
6. Base Chain: Prices of assets like $edge and $gai are surging.
At this stage, it's not advisable to talk about bottom fishing for BTC and ETH, but rather consider whether to chase the rise and whether the cost-effectiveness of doing so is worth it. Just a joke, even if a bear market strikes and Bitcoin may drop by thousands of points, there will definitely be a rebound in the short term. If Ethereum drops below 4000, it could be a good opportunity to position for longs.
BTC
Bitcoin's key point of 118000 has been lost. This is a point of extreme trading volume, with both long and short sides engaged in fierce battles, putting in maximum effort to determine the winner. Currently, it is necessary to explore and seek new demand, accumulating market consensus.
The weekly chart shows clear top signals for BTC, such as long upper shadows and engulfing patterns, suggesting a bearish trend. If this week confirms a death cross and a top divergence, Bitcoin may drop below 100,000 US dollars. Although the interest rate meeting and employment data may bring a short-term rebound, the technical outlook still leans bearish. The daily line has not shown ideal rebound conditions, and in the future, it may first rebound before falling again.
Key price level: If there is no rebound, first look at 112,000 US dollars; if it breaks below, a large-level top may form, dropping to 99,000 US dollars. Historical data shows that breaking below the Vegas channel is often a good opportunity for spot layout, worth paying attention to for long-term investors.
ETH
Ethereum has reached its historical high (2021 peak), and the primary task is defense. Regardless of your cost basis, don't assume it will definitely break through. In practical operations, it is difficult to judge whether a breakout will hold, often involving some luck. Therefore, I prefer to protect existing profits rather than gamble on a breakout. If it's a real breakout, there will be many opportunities later; a false breakout could lead to significant losses.
Currently, ETH bulls want to hold the weekly breakout, like key positions around 4150. Bears always want to disrupt the structure; today, being Monday, there should be a good show to watch, a battle between bulls and bears. If 4200 cannot hold, the next target will be 3900 (temporarily observing and waiting for a stop before charging).
Why did Ethereum crash today?
A large holder's long position in Ethereum on Hyperliquid is close to liquidation, with maximum profits exceeding 20 million not realized, currently on the brink of liquidation. The liquidation price is 4258, and the price just spiked to 4255, suspected to have been taken by smart money trying to scoop up the bottom, leading to liquidation failure.
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Altcoins
Bitcoin determines the market, Ethereum determines altcoins. Those who rushed to chase long positions at Ethereum 4500 and Bitcoin 117500 may now regret it. The current market is at a critical turning point, with all coins facing downward pressure. The short-term outlook is bearish, but there are still long-term benefits.
Currently, some quality altcoins are stabilizing at the bottom, suitable for gradual bottom fishing, with a high probability of rebound opportunities.
With Dogecoin as a strong representative, the current daily line pattern is close to engulfing. If it drops to $0.2, it will become an important long-term opportunity. Other mainstream altcoins like LINK, ADA, IP, and SOL have not shown significant weakness, indicating funds are gradually flowing from ETH to altcoins, which is a positive signal.
On-chain:
To put it simply: small bets for big gains (like lottery), two-stage trading (not strategic), rolling over bit by bit. Currently, I've cleared out small coins on-chain and only hold leading coins, waiting to add positions when the market warms up.
