Bitcoin's highest yesterday was 117,543, the lowest was 114,640, with a volatility of 2,903 points. Ethereum's highest yesterday was 4,481, the lowest was 4,225, with a volatility of 256 points. In the last 24 hours, a total of 100,928 people across the network were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 3.32 billion USD.
Today's hot opportunities:
1. Strategy increased its holdings by 430 bitcoins (about 51.4 million USD), with an average price of 119,666 USD.
2. Douyin $TADC surged 46 times, $JAKPOT skyrocketed 243 times, suspected insider trading.
3. Metaplanet increased its holdings by 775 bitcoins (about 90 million USD), with total reserves reaching 18,888 bitcoins.
4. BNB Micro Strategy $BNC increased its holdings by 125,000 $BNB (about 100 million USD), but the stock price dropped by 20%.
5. Bitcoin flippers cashed out 3.5 billion USD, with the pullback magnitude shrinking monthly: 30% in January, 12% in May, and only 8% this month.
Is the bull market over? Is the market reversing? How to find support and resistance levels and make proper arrangements? Let's take a look together.
BTC
Yesterday, Bitcoin's daily line showed a 'gold needle half shadow' pattern, after a rebound to 117 in the early morning, it fell again, and the rebound strength did not meet expectations, likely entering a consolidation range in the short term. Couldn't resist at noon, opened a long position with a small amount at 115,168, and exited after making 216 USD.
Back to the market: If Bitcoin falls below 112,000, it will form a MACD weekly dual top divergence, similar to the previous bull market top divergence (price makes new highs while MACD crosses down), the market may turn bearish. However, the current drop is too fast, without testing a pullback, the probability of directly turning bearish is low.
Macroeconomically, interest rate cuts and liquidity injections have not yet arrived, and adjustments may represent buying opportunities. Technically, if BTC recovers 117,000, it may short-term test 120,000 (0.618 level), driving Ethereum and altcoins to rebound. If it still drops after 120,000, we need to wait for the return of risk-averse funds after interest rate cuts and for the adjustment to end before strengthening. If it does not recover 117,000 within two days, pay attention to the trend after dropping towards 112,000.
Advice: Focus on the support levels of 112,000 and 105,000, observe the buying structure and MACD signals. If the support holds and indicators align, a second wave of market movement can be expected; if it falls below 105,000, be alert for adjustment risks and continuously monitor market dynamics.
ETH
Ethereum's top has not broken; after we made a huge profit of 6581 USD last week, we have exited with profits. I've been doing swings in between, and today I went long again, making 538 USD. Ethereum might double and not feel much, but a 10% drop feels like the sky is falling; retail investors hated Bitcoin as much as they currently dislike Ethereum.
Back to the market: According to the wave pattern, Ethereum's five waves are nearing the end, with a futures gap at 4086, combined with 1 billion liquidity, a short-term pullback to this level seems reasonable. (4270 is the key short-term support, close to the limit of local adjustment.) As long as it does not fall below 4000, Ethereum still has room for growth, after all, there is still a huge amount of liquidity piled up above 4800.
From the structural perspective, a pullback to 4000 or even a brief break below, followed by a quick recovery, would be ideal, but it cannot close below 4000 with a solid red candle. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has also touched the lower edge of key support, and institutional quantitative short positions dominate.
Last week I estimated this Tuesday's target around 4100; aggressive traders can enter at this position and test the buying strength. If weak, do T-trading; the best position is around 4150! The best buying position for the bears is support trend at around 3750 and 3800.
Altcoin
When bottom-fishing altcoins, focus mainly on high-quality altcoins. Two directions: one is the Ethereum ecosystem, and the other is related to RWA. We are still in the bull market process; even a few days ago, knowing the market would pull back, I didn't short, waiting for the drop to buy better.
The altcoins I will bottom-fish: LTC, SOL, XRP, SUI, PEPE, Dogecoin, MAGIC.
On-chain coins to watch:
The Solana chain is relatively quiet, not much to play with, the Bonk ecosystem currently has nothing worth playing. Although the OKB ecosystem is slightly active, it’s mostly trivial.
1. $spark Buy around 20 for a swing, see if it can reach 30+.
2. $clippy Watch around 13m, if it falls through, get out.
3. $uranus 40m reminds everyone, let's see if it can break through 60m.
4. $tokabu $troll Let's wait a bit longer
5. $neet is not performing well, let's see if it can have an independent market.
6. Wangchai 5M continues to wave (sooner or later will be wiped out by the wave party)...
7. $aol Watch around 10m, I am personally paying attention to this.
