In July, U.S. PPI data exploded again, and the cryptocurrency market was affected by this last night, resulting in a pullback. Bitcoin and Ethereum flashed crash, and altcoins faced a waterfall washout. In the last 24 hours, a total of 205,590 people globally were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $961 million. Previous profits from long positions have significantly retreated. Next time, Sweet Dream will choose to take profits in batches, securing the gains.
This morning, another test at 117000 revealed that it couldn't go down. The market has started a rebound from oversold conditions. This morning, Sweet Dream publicly reminded to go long on Bitcoin around 118000, making a small profit of 1000 points. Conservative fans can exit.
Reason for the crash
The U.S. PPI has crashed, with July's U.S. PPI soaring 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since June 2022, and the core PPI also significantly exceeding expectations! This has two direct consequences:
Inflation expectations are rising again.
Corporate costs have risen, which will ultimately transmit to the consumer end, putting pressure on CPI. Consumers footing the bill means the Federal Reserve cannot ease off on the path of combating inflation.
September rate cut is 'shrouded in shadows.'
Originally, there were still people in the market hoping for a 'direct cut of 50 basis points.' Now, with the PPI shock, most institutions believe that a 25bp rate cut in September is already considered giving the market face.
In September, the expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve plummeted to 90%, and a 50 basis point cut has been nearly ruled out, indicating that the rate cut expectations have fallen short, leading to a direct crash in the cryptocurrency market.
BTC
Bitcoin is entering an adjustment phase, with a range of 117400-119200. The support level at 117.5K for Bitcoin has seen an oversold rebound. Currently, Bitcoin's 'line of life and death' is at 116,000 USD. If it effectively breaks down on the daily level, the outlook will be bearish; another key level is at 122,000 USD. If it cannot break through and form a lower high, the market framework will turn bearish.
①: The resistance level at 119.3k failed to break through and is now pulling back.
②: The two key levels at 118.5k and 117.5k can be used to catch rebounds. If it continues to break the low, it will head towards 115k.
③: The support level at the daily trend line is 115988-114988, which happens to be the next support level of the 1:1 oscillation range. This level is only valid for this week; as time goes on, the support level will gradually rise until it reaches last night's spike level of 117000, which will be interesting as both bulls and bears will be squeezed.
④: The phase low is at 112888-111888, which I don't need to elaborate on.
ETH
After Ethereum's hourly level broke through the accelerating channel and the EMA 12-day moving average, there is short-term rebound potential. ETH will next move up in a V-shape, looking successively at 4666/4688, 4712, and 4770. Although the 8-hour MACD shows a dead cross, it is too far from the zero axis, leaving room for variability. The 4-hour MACD should issue a stop-loss signal today, so it will not go down to the 8-hour adjustment low near 4412.
If a rebound from an oversold condition approaches the previous high, consider taking profits. If it breaks through, then look at the 4989 range. A failure to break through may lead to further adjustments, completing a 2-push correction before continuing to go long.
In addition, funds are continuously buying in, and there is no shortage of bottom-fishing. Some are even adding positions at this level! So Ethereum starting with 5 may come soon!
Altcoins
Whether it's mainstream altcoins or small-cap altcoins, even after a rebound, they still remain in a low state, with not much of a rally. How will altcoins perform next?
①: The third phase of the main upward wave, with both volume and price rising, begins to explode.
②: Dilly-dallying a bit while following the big trend up, eventually reaching a high point, randomly pulling a few times for quick distribution, and ending.
Most altcoins will follow the second path above, only high-quality and wealthy altcoins will run according to the first path, such as the reduction in OKB supply being favorable, surging by 200%, reaching above 130.
Can altcoins still get in?
Yes, as the bull market progresses, the best strategy becomes one: choose the value targets you believe in, be cautious and enter slowly, and once in, lie back and wait to exit when the bull market reaches its peak.
This pullback is the opportunity; no one can earn every penny in the B circle or grasp every small stage of the market. It's neither necessary nor possible. We only need to capture a significant portion, and it is not necessary to sell at the highest point, just at the second-highest or even the third-highest is enough. In any case, there are still plenty of opportunities in this round, and there will definitely be many wealth legends by next year. It just depends on who can seize them.
AOL: The news about USD1 being minted on the Solana chain is bullish for the Wlfi ecosystem. AOL has been accumulating shares, and currently, it is still influenced by the meme concept, leading to a strong rally. Buying in batches on 15m and 10m, currently, there is only information about USD1 being minted on Solana, with no substantial good news yet. Waiting for news and a pullback.
SOL: Futu has launched retail trading services for Solana. In July, Futu's founder mentioned the layout for virtual assets, and in August, it arrived quickly, indicating that more capital will flow in, benefiting the entire ecosystem and SOL, with more Q business models likely to follow suit.