听甜梦说

If Bitcoin can stabilize, the core hotspots of MEME will rise

If Bitcoin cannot stabilize, no matter how much the fund controls the supply, it will still crash

Analyzing the logical priority of a MEME

Narrative > Candlestick > Retail Participation Rate > Weight-Related Expectations > Whales

Whales are a lagging effect
Only serves as a reference among multiple factors and is indeed not very significant

If you only believe in whales,
then what will be stripped next is your underwear

The narrative climax of this wave of increase has ended, and it did not occur in the cryptocurrency circle, but in the US stock market, where the explosive rise of cryptocurrency stocks has replaced altcoins.

Since April 7, BTC has risen by a maximum of 65%, US stock SBET has risen by a maximum of 5000%, BMNR by 4000%, and various US stocks that have been converted to cryptocurrency stocks have surged, resembling the market frenzy of inscriptions and MEME across various public chains at that time.

As a barometer of the cryptocurrency market, Coinbase's financial report has been released, showing Q2 revenue of $1.5 billion (below the expected $1.59 billion), a 26% decline quarter-over-quarter. Trading volume was $237 billion, down 40% from the previous quarter. This means that while cryptocurrency prices continually set new historical highs in Q2, the overall trading volume is sluggish, which feels very much like the experience of retail investors. The cryptocurrency market is gradually moving toward depopulation, following the path of the U.S. stock market, with its targets increasingly aligning with U.S. stocks.

Aside from Bitcoin and Ethereum, native cryptocurrency assets may struggle to compete with U.S. stocks. Personally, I am quite pessimistic about the overall future of altcoins, as they have historically served as casinos, and in terms of fundamentals, narrative, and playability, they are far inferior to U.S. stocks.

Thus, Coinbase is also preparing to push for the tokenization of U.S. stocks like Robinhood, as this area clearly represents a growing market that can expand the pie. (This competes with Bitcoin and Ethereum)

At the same time, it is preparing to enter the betting markets for political, economic, and sports events, similar to Polymarket. (This competes with altcoins)

The net profit for this quarter was $1.43 billion, but adjusted profit was only $33 million, indicating weak core operational profitability.

Custodial assets reached a new high and continue to rise, showing that institutions rely heavily on compliant exchanges, and this portion of funds remains in the market. Once trading activity picks up again, Coinbase is expected to quickly return to growth. The challenge lies in how to activate user trading enthusiasm.

Choose one, only do one

⚠️ The full position liquidation price should be below $90,000, or your mindset will break. Note that it's two entry points in batches.

BTC/USDT Long position for medium to long term with 100x leverage, total 5% margin
Entry points:
1) 114288 2% margin
2) Place another order at 112188 3% margin
Take profit target:
1) 118000
Stop loss: 4-hour closing price below 109000
Strategy for reference only, manage your position well, not as a basis for trading orders, any changes will be notified separately. #BTC

⚠️ The risk of ETH contracts is higher than BTC, and the full position liquidation price should be below $2,300, or your mindset will break.

ETH/USDT Place a long order with 100x leverage, total 3% margin
Order entry points:
1) 3568 3% margin
Take profit target:
Stop loss: 3498
Strategy for reference only, manage your position well, not as a basis for trading orders, any changes will be notified separately.

The callbacks that are meant to come will always come. For now, we either wait for a valid breakout to intervene or wait for a pullback to confirm the support level below. The recent support level is above 114300. Currently, Bitcoin has broken below the 120 moving average line, and the rebound strength in the very short term may not be strong. A pullback is an opportunity; not lowering interest rates is equivalent to lowering them. At this time, negative news is actually positive.

Today, the overall market continues to maintain an optimistic sentiment. Although the PCE data is poor, due to Trump's strong inclination towards interest rate cuts and his continuous pressure on Powell, the market's sensitivity to macro data is weakening, even leading to a logical dislocation where both good and bad data support rate cuts.

Although the probability of not cutting rates in September has risen to 61%, the market remains strong, as investors are more focused on Trump's attitude rather than the Federal Reserve's resistance. Meanwhile, tomorrow's unemployment rate data, regardless of being high or low, provides the market with reasons to interpret it as positive.

From the market perspective, the trading volume of $BTC continues to decline, indicating that current investors are sluggish in response to short-term volatility, FOMO sentiment is weak, and selling pressure is not apparent. I took profits on most long positions at $118,500, leaving only 20% to continue observing.

At the same time, pay attention to the release of $MSTR and $Coin earnings reports tonight. Q2 activity is higher than Q1, and the data is expected to perform well, potentially providing short-term stimulation to the market. The density of positions between $117,000 and $118,000 is already very high, and a directional choice is likely to be made in the future.

Second half script interpretation: Choose 1, 2, or 3 and comment below!

1. Interest rate cut in September and only one cut this year. Mainstream rises in July, imitation rises in August, followed by a pullback due to good news landing in September, then a V-shaped rebound continuing to new highs in October and November, ending the bull market. Another possibility is that August is strong enough, and in September, it continues to charge forward, pulling the market up until the significant interest rate cut spreads, creating the peak of the bull market, with the market running ahead, ending the bull market.

2. No interest rate cut in September, shift to a cut in December. Mainstream rises in July, imitation rises in August, followed by a back-and-forth high-level consolidation in September, October, and November, leading to a new high in December, ending the bull market.

3. Two interest rate cuts in September and December. Mainstream rises in July, imitation rises in August, slight adjustments in September, followed by significant rises in October, November, and December, breaking new highs, replicating 2020 in April 2025, with a continuous rise in October, ending the bull market.

Summary: The opportunity for a violent drop in the first half of the year is already a thing of the past, while the rise in the second half is ongoing. The bolder the person, the greater the yield. Human desires will be fully expressed in the market. In the second half, all stocks that should rise will rise, albeit at different rates. However, behind the frenzy, we should return to rationality, as substantial volatility comes with both gains and risks. When the wind blows, even pigs can fly; after the wind passes, it's a mess. No matter how much profit, it ultimately is just joyful beans; cashing out and securing the gains is what truly belongs to oneself. At the peak of the wave, it doesn't matter whether you are still swimming naked, but rather it emphasizes living longer.

The recently released June PCE data from the United States is not very good. The most important core PCE year-on-year rate, after revising the previous value, is consistent with this month's data and the previous value, below market expectations. However, since it is a revised previous value, the impact should not be very large. The month-on-month core PCE is in line with market expectations and higher than the previous value.

Both the year-on-year and month-on-month PCE rates are rising, indicating that inflation is currently not friendly, at least no downward trend can be seen yet, especially considering that in two months there will be tariff data, which may be higher by then.

Although the inflation data is poor, reducing the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, the market's betting is not on this data, but rather on when Trump will announce the list of Powell's successors. After all, whether the current data is good or bad is a game between Trump and Powell, and once there is a change, market expectations will increase.

After the PCE data was released, the CME's probability of no interest rate cut in September has risen again, from 55% yesterday to 58.8% now. Next, we will see how the market responds.

Personally, I estimate that if the current macro data is favorable, it will help market sentiment, but if it is unfavorable, the market's reaction should also be limited, as it is no longer a time dominated by data.

Explosive memes can be said to be related to the real world or specific people and things, with Elon Musk's narrative being the biggest exception. Examples include House, Neet, Gork, Ani, Moodeng, Labubu, Pnut, Aurafarm, Boatkid, Jet2, Cattle, Gary, MLG.

Slow cook requires looking at the chip structure, needing the will of the dealer/whale and key figures/strong communities to establish a new concept from nothing, such as Useless, Memecoin, Startup, Uranus, Fartcoin, Y2K.

Reality resonance vs abstract concepts

The reason is simple:

People find it easy to recognize phenomena themselves, but establishing a religion requires long-term deliberate effort.

Miracles are fabricated, and people are always flocking to phenomena. But once a religion is established, it is real.

Milk Wave:

BTC hits 150,000 USD,

ETH aims for 7,000,

BNB rushes to 1,000,

SOL returns to 300,

ADA goes back to the 3 USD era,

XRP surges with the 10 USD legend reappearing,

SUI stabilizes at 5 USD,

1000PEPE community crazily rushes to 0.2.

In a few years, 10 coins with a thousand times increase will emerge.

The current support below Bitcoin is still valid, but news will only affect short-term trends. The bullish trend is already determined, but the market is still teasing. The manipulators are not fools; can a situation where you make a guaranteed profit continue? Remember, everything is just a washout, and the rest is up to your mindset. Put the indicators aside, maintain good defense, and we will continue to follow the trend!
Prevent a spike in early August at 115000-116000, and here buy the dip on the mainstream. If Bitcoin breaks 120,000, we continue to be bullish!

This month, the Federal Reserve has kept its stance unchanged, and the expectation for a rate cut in September has cooled. Therefore, Japan has no reason to raise interest rates and will also remain steady. Whether to raise rates will depend on November and January of next year. If Japan raises rates by 0.25%, at the current price of BTC, it could directly fall to 102,000, which is also the ultimate defense line for bulls in the future. If it breaks below this level, the entire bull market cycle since the end of 2022 will end, rather than just a phase adjustment.

Even if you are unsure whether BTC will continue to rise after consolidating, just look at ETH's monthly chart to see that August must aim to break above 4k. The last monthly golden cross was in December 2023, pulling from 2440 to 4098, and the starting point of the current golden cross is at the current price. Therefore, some people see a reasonable argument for ETH to rise to 6k, but being more conservative, looking at 4880-5500 is more appropriate.

The interest rate decision was announced unchanged at 2 AM last night, followed by Powell's speech at 3 AM. The price spiked to around 115,700, then buying surged quickly, indicating strong support around 116,000 in the short term. The overall bullish trend remains unchanged.

If you buy low below 116,000, you can hold on, as it's not easy to retrace; the buying pressure is too strong. It is expected that after a couple of weeks of sideways movement in August, there will be a breakout to the upside. It has already been sideways for 18 days, and after this, it will aim to create new highs again. Look for the right entry opportunity at the beginning of the month!

Besides BTC and ETH, the following altcoins are currently applying for ETFs (under review):

SOL XRP LTC DOGE ADA HBAR DOT AVAX SUI APT INJ ONDO SEI TRX..(please add if there are any omissions)

Currently, the most applications are from XRP and DOGE. I believe the first tier that may be approved first are: SOL XRP DOGE (especially SOL and XRP)

From Powell's response, there was no indication of any potential easing, and he repeatedly expressed that the Federal Reserve needs to see more data before deciding on the interest rate direction for September. In fact, the changes in prices have clearly shown us that the market is disappointed with Powell's remarks.

Powell once again demonstrated the independence of the Federal Reserve through action, indicating that it will not be influenced by political reasons. Future inflation is likely to be affected by tariffs, and before the tariffs are fully implemented, the Federal Reserve will not take preemptive action and needs to see more data.

This also means that if Powell and the Federal Reserve remain steadfast, then with tariffs not fully implemented and showing an impact on inflation, the possibility of a rate cut in September is not arranged by the Federal Reserve. After Powell's speech, the market raised the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting rates in September to 51.8%, up from only 33.6% before the speech.

ETH has bounced twice in the support range of 3780~3730 in the last two days. After a slight decline in the near future, if it reaches around 3750, we can lower expectations and make a quick trade.

For medium to short-term support, we can place orders at 3666~3570 with a one-to-two ratio for quick entry and exit. If it rebounds and then falls again, we can place orders again at 3485~3420.