From the current market dynamics, the trends of Bitcoin and Ethereum do show typical bull market characteristics, but there are also some signals and operational advice worth noting. Here is a structured analysis of the current market and strategic recommendations:
I. Core Asset Trend Analysis
1 Bitcoin (BTC)
Technical Analysis: After a quick pullback to 118,000 USD following a new high of 124,400 USD, the 'new high turnover' model was validated. The daily RSI is overbought (>70) but has not shown a top divergence; short-term support can be observed at 115,000 USD (previous high converted support level).
On-chain Data: Institutional holding addresses continue to grow (Glassnode data shows an increase of 78 addresses with >1K BTC in the past month), but the exchange stock has risen by 3% week-on-week, indicating some profit-taking.
2 Ethereum (ETH) Historical Significance: At 4,788 USD, it is only 1.6% away from the previous high, and after the breakout, it will enter the price discovery phase. Attention should be paid to the psychological resistance in the range of 4,860-4,900; on-chain data shows that 37% of circulating supply is in profit state (IntoTheBlock), which may trigger selling pressure.
II. Logic of Altcoin Rotation
1 Capital Flow • Mainstream Altcoins (DOGE/LINK) have seen capital inflow over the past 7 days at only 18% of BTC, indicating that funds are still focused on top assets. However, the abnormal movement of exchange tokens like OKB (24h trading volume surged by 1400%) suggests that sector rotation may accelerate.
2 Timing Indicators: The current value of 'BTC Dominance Index' is 42.8%. If it falls below 40%, it will trigger altcoin season. Key focus: Infrastructure types (SOL, MATIC): Benefit from traditional institutions entering Modular Blockchain (TIA, MANTA): ETH ecosystem spillover effect targets.
III. Decoding Institutional Behavior
Remedial Strategy: Grayscale ETHE premium rate turns positive (+2.3%), indicating that institutions are replenishing positions through the secondary market. Tracking Coinbase institutional wallets reveals about 420,000 ETH flowing back in the 3,000-3,600 USD range.
2 Derivative Signals: BTC quarterly contract annualized premium remains at 18%-22%, with no excessive leverage (financing rate <0.01%). However, the ETH options Put/Call ratio has dropped sharply to 0.4, indicating a need to guard against short-term correction risks.
IV. Operation Framework Recommendations
Scenario
Triggering Conditions
Response Strategy
BTC breaks through 130,000
Continuously stands firm at 128,000 for 4 hours
Ladder profit-taking (reduce 10% for every 5% increase)
ETH historical new high pullback
The daily closing is below 4,650
Hedging Strategy (buy 5% out-of-the-money PUT)
Altcoin season starts
BTC.D falls below 40% + stablecoin issuance increases
The targets that have not broken through the annual line among the top 20 market value projects before configuration
V. Key Time Nodes
August 20: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole
September 6: ECB interest rate decision (current market pricing shows a 68% probability of a 25bp rate cut)
September 18: FOMC meeting (CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate cut rising from 42% to 57%)
Risk Warning: Current BTC has achieved a volatility (30D) of 85%, close to the April 2021 level. It is recommended to adopt a "5-3-2" position management: 50% core assets + 30% mainstream altcoins + 20% stablecoin reserves. The violent surge in the late bull market is often accompanied by greater volatility, and caution is needed for a sharp drop similar to the 'parabolic sprint' after November 2021.
