[Zeus's Commentary] BTC Today's Market: Powell's nuclear bomb is coming, how long can the bulls hold on?
Brothers, today's BTC trend is like 'boiling a frog in warm water' - seemingly calm, but in reality, crises are lurking everywhere! The current price is 113,102 USDT, up 0.25%, but don't be fooled by this illusion! Fed Chair Powell will speak at the global central bank annual meeting tonight at 21:00, and if he turns hawkish, BTC could crash instantly!
Technical aspect: Bulls are weak, bears are lurking!
1 Moving average suppression, no hope for a rebound!
MA30 (116,425) and MA56 (118,130) are like two mountains, firmly pressing down on BTC, even short-term moving averages can't break through, indicating the bulls have no strength at all!
EMA24 (115,718) and EMA52 (116,798) have formed a dead cross, leaving very limited room for a short-term rebound!
2 MACD & KDJ show market weakness!
MACD's fast and slow lines are below the zero line, indicating that the market is still bear-dominated!
KDJ, although it has a golden cross, the strength is very weak and it may be smashed back to a dead cross at any time!
3 BOLL bands are narrowing, a trend change is imminent! The Bollinger Bands are tightening, indicating that a big fluctuation is about to come!
Combined with Powell's speech tonight, a downward breakout is highly likely!
Fundamentally: Powell may ignite the market tonight!
The probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September is severely overestimated! The latest data shows core inflation rebounding + strong employment + tariff shocks, Powell is highly likely to sound hawkish tonight!
Once Powell hints at 'no rate cut', BTC could plummet 5%-10% instantly!
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has stabilized at 98.38. If it continues to strengthen, BTC will be under pressure!
Today's trading strategy:
Short term: Short positions can be lightly taken near 113,000, stop loss at 114,500, target at 110,000!
Don't blindly catch the bottom! Wait until Powell's speech is over and market sentiment stabilizes before entering!
Be alert for violent fluctuations after 21:00 tonight! If BTC falls below 111,000, it could accelerate the decline!
Summary: BTC is currently the 'calm before the storm'. Tonight it could either surge or crash! However, considering the Fed's hawkish expectations, I lean towards a significant pullback! Brothers, fasten your seatbelts, it might be a bloodbath tonight!
(Zeus reminds: The market has risks, trade with caution!) $BTC