Bitcoin remains strong above 110,000 USD in the last months of 2025, sustained by a steady flow of inflows into ETFs and growing demand from institutional investors. The question dominating trading tables and analysis groups is: will BTC break 125,000 USD in this cycle, or will that be the limit?
To answer, it is necessary to look beyond the current price and analyze on-chain metrics, macroeconomic trends, the typical behavior of halving cycles, and the overall market sentiment. The signals point to an optimistic scenario, but it is essential to understand what is behind this moment. In this article, we will look at the key points to reflect on how far the current Bitcoin bull run could go and whether 125,000 USD will be a peak or a springboard for what is to come.
On-chain: increasingly scarce supply.
One of the most discussed factors by analysts is the historically low level of BTC available on exchanges. Recent data shows that the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges is at its lowest point in several years, indicating that investors are opting for self-custody—a classic signal that they do not plan to sell in the short term.—Additionally:
Whale accumulation: wallets with more than 1,000 BTC increased their net balance in recent months, reinforcing buying pressure.
Miner balances: despite the halving in April 2024 reducing rewards, many miners are holding more coins, likely betting on higher prices.
This combination reduces immediate supply in the market and, in a scenario of increasing demand, tends to favor new highs.
Macro: weaker dollar and greater appetite for risk.
The macroeconomic context also plays a relevant role. The Dollar Index (DXY) shows signs of weakening, as the market begins to anticipate rate cuts in the US towards the end of 2025. A weaker dollar usually benefits risk assets, including Bitcoin, which many already consider a 'digital store of value.'
To put it into perspective, the DXY—which compares the dollar with a basket of other global currencies—recorded a decline of over 10% in the first half of 2025, the largest drop in the dollar's value against the rest of the world since the first half of 1973. In other words: the appetite for the dollar is lower, which drives investors towards riskier assets.
Moreover, global inflation remains moderate and stock markets show strength, a scenario that stimulates allocation to alternative assets like Bitcoin and other altcoins.
Halving: repeating patterns.
Historically, Bitcoin's post-halving cycles present a pattern:
Previous accumulation, with prices slowly gaining traction.
Bullish acceleration in the following months, driven by scarcity and a positive narrative.
Formation of a peak approximately between 12 and 18 months after the event.
The halving in April 2024 reduced the daily issuance from 900 to 450 BTC. If history repeats itself, we may still be in the initial phase of major appreciation of the cycle, making 125,000 USD more of a waypoint than a definitive peak.
ETF inflows: institutional fuel.
The approval and popularization of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US and other markets brought a steady flow of daily purchases, regardless of short-term volatility. It is estimated that some ETFs are absorbing tens of thousands of BTC each month, reinforcing demand pressure and accelerating the process of scarcity. For institutional investors, the ETF is the easiest way to gain exposure to BTC without dealing with self-custody, structurally broadening the buyer base.
Additionally, this institutional entry represents an additional stage of maturity for Bitcoin as an alternative asset. That widespread distrust or the narrative that 'it's just a bubble' has disappeared from the map.
Market sentiment: confidence with caution.
Indicators such as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index show elevated levels of optimism, but still far from the extreme euphoria that usually marks the peaks of the cycle. Social media reflects a greater interest in Bitcoin, but without the typical collective hysteria of bubbles. This suggests that there is still room for new buyers before a peak of widespread overbuying. In the short term, it seems that position consolidation by previous users predominates rather than massive hype from new participants.
Moreover, those entering now are mostly institutional players, who do so with larger volumes and a deeper commitment than someone who just wants to 'buy Bitcoin to try it out.'
Factors that could hinder the rise.
Although the signals are positive, there are risks that could delay or limit the advance towards 125,000 USD:
Profit-taking by large holders after strong rallies.
Unexpected macro events, such as geopolitical crises (due to military or trade tensions) or new rate hikes in the face of more persistent inflation than expected.
Regulation: abrupt changes in the legal framework of BTC in key markets can affect risk appetite.
None of these scenarios dominates at this moment, but in such a dynamic market, changes can come faster than expected.
125,000 USD: peak or springboard?
There are two possible readings for this price level:
Peak: if the arrival at 125,000 USD is accompanied by extreme euphoria, it could signal the proximity of the end of the cycle.
Springboard: if reached gradually, with still favorable on-chain and macro metrics, it could be just another step towards higher levels, such as 150,000 USD or even 180,000 USD.
The key will be the quality of the movement: volume, whale behavior, institutional capital inflow, and global context.
Strategies for traders and holders at this moment.
For traders:
Use 50-day and 200-day moving averages as support and resistance guides.
Watch for RSI or MACD divergences to detect reversal signals.
Progressively adjust stops to protect profits in case of a correction.
For hodlers:
Define ranges for partial profit-taking (for example, 10% of the position at each key level).
Avoid impulsive decisions based solely on headlines.
Reinforce custody security, especially if holding significant capital outside of exchanges.
The scenario favors new highs.
The combination of on-chain scarcity, institutional flow, favorable macro context, and post-halving cycle history places Bitcoin in a privileged position to seek or even exceed 125,000 USD in this cycle. Whether it will be the peak or just a milestone will depend on how the market behaves during the rise.
For the prepared investor, the most important thing is to follow the data, maintain discipline, and act strategically, because in the crypto market, every new peak can just be the beginning of a new level.
#BTCBreaksATH #BTC #bitcoin #ATH
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Photo by kasemkaew, available on Freepik.
