Event Aspects
1. 8.15 U.S.-Russia High-Level Meeting → A key global geopolitical junction; if negotiations break down, it could trigger volatility in global risk assets.
2. This week, pay attention to speeches from other Federal Reserve officials (such as Bostic) → The market will look for more clues regarding the extent of interest rate cuts in September.
3. Technical Aspect: Bitcoin's $120,000 threshold → A key technical level that determines the short-term trend.
Macroeconomic Situation
1. Federal Reserve Policy Game: Federal Reserve official Daly clearly opposes a significant interest rate cut in September, contradicting the Treasury Secretary’s view on “50 basis points possibly,” increasing policy uncertainty and temporarily suppressing risk appetite.
2. Geopolitical and Energy Shocks: Geopolitical risks have heightened before the U.S.-Russia meeting, with events like the Rostov explosion increasing risk aversion. At the same time, the sharp drop in international oil prices has weakened the narrative appeal of crypto assets as an “anti-inflation” tool, constituting an indirect bearish signal.
3. Global Liquidity Divergence: Although interbank liquidity in the U.S. is ample (with the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase scale hitting a record low), this portion of funds has not significantly flowed into the crypto market. The liquidity release in China also mainly affects its domestic market, and global capital's interest in the crypto market has temporarily cooled.
