Let's focus on a few key events
1. August 30th, US Core PCE Data: A nuclear-level event. If the data exceeds expectations (e.g., month-on-month ≥0.4%), it could completely overturn the logic of a rate cut in September, triggering a sharp market correction. Conversely, it could become a 'rate cut trigger,' igniting market momentum.
2. Progress on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement: If there is positive progress, the reduction of geopolitical risk premium will be bearish for gold and may have a correlated impact on Bitcoin.
3. Exchange Whale Ratio: The most direct indicator to assess whether potential selling pressure from whales is being realized and whether short-term market risks are alleviated.
From a macro perspective
Global easing cycle is starting: The market has basically priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with emerging markets like Indonesia beginning to cut rates, leading to a more accommodative global liquidity environment that provides long-term benefits for risk assets.
Institutional adoption accelerating: The US Treasury's positive stance on stablecoins and Hong Kong's approval of new stablecoin licenses signify a deepening integration of traditional capital with the crypto market, which is expected to help unlock trillion-dollar allocation demand in the long term.
Market sentiment is diverging: There is a stark contrast between macro liquidity expectations (bullish) and short-term on-chain selling pressure (bearish). Traditional markets like A-shares are experiencing euphoric sentiment, while the crypto market's technical aspects are still in a crucial game of breakthrough. The VIX index rebounded to 15.8, indicating that under the expectation of a liquidity frenzy, the market remains cautious of potential risks.