I see many people who missed the opportunity saying that Ethereum is selling now, but the truth is that data shows inflows. However, we cannot rule out some whales selling!
The logic of selling is not that major players frequently sell within a certain range; for example, a store won't initially mark down to '10% off,' and major players won't rely on sharp declines to sell their chips.
One, the truth about support levels: major players' 'cost defense line' rather than market bottom.
Those support levels regarded as 'indestructible' (ETH $2200, $2000) are essentially the lowest selling prices set by major players.
The rebound of ETH after touching $2200 three times in 2023 is not a bottom formed automatically by the market, but rather a sign that major players still have a large number of chips to sell.
Below this price, profit margins are compressed, major players must temporarily support the price, but it is definitely not the bottom of a free market.
Signal of breaking below support levels.
False breakdown to induce short selling: major players deliberately let prices briefly fall below support, triggering panic selling among retail investors, then quickly pulling back to complete the operation of 'buying low and distributing high.'
True breakdown closing stage: three consecutive 4-hour candlesticks close below with volume increasing over 30%, indicating that major players have almost cleared their positions; the drop is merely to clear remaining inventory.
Two, the 'three-stage script' of major players' selling.
Major players do not rely on sharp declines to sell ETH, but instead carry out precise operations in three steps, each targeting retail investor psychology:
1️⃣ Pulling up while selling (inducing buying to collect orders).
5%-10% of capital is used to drive up prices, creating the illusion of 'continued major upward trends.'
During price increases, retail investors chase in while major players reduce their holdings by 3%-5% at high levels.
The more bullish candles, the more excited retail investors become, making it easier for major players to sell.
2️⃣ High-level oscillation (distributing chips in a flat manner).
High-level range oscillation (e.g., $3200-$3400), with frequent upper and lower shadows.
Every time the upper limit is hit, they dump, and a small pullback occurs at the lower limit, misleading retail investors into thinking support is solid.
If the price remains flat for more than 15 days, major players have typically sold over 60% of their positions.
3️⃣ Selling while falling (taking advantage of bottom-fishing psychology to clear inventory)
Less than 20% of chips remaining, a slight decline attracts bottom-fishing capital.
Controlling the decline within 10%-15% prevents panic while allowing retail investors to be the last buyers.
A cliff-like drop will only occur after major players have sold out, leaving retail investors deeply trapped.
Three, the 'three rules' to crack the selling maze.
To determine if ETH is in a selling phase, don't just look at the ups and downs; pay attention to three signals:
1️⃣ Divergence between volume and price.
Increased volume but slowing price increase → distributing chips at high levels.
Large bullish candles with increased volume during consolidation, while bearish candles decrease in volume → creating an illusion of activity to attract buyers.
2️⃣ Changes in chip concentration.
Large holders reduce positions, small holders increase → chips are shifting from major players to retail investors.
3️⃣ Continuity of fund flow.
Large inflows on a single day, followed by 3-5 days of small outflows → 'less in, more out,' cumulative outflows far exceed inflows.
Conclusion: Step out of the price surface and understand the capital game.
Every rise and consolidation of ETH is a psychological game between major players and retail investors.
Do you impulsively buy on the way up?
Just because the price is falling, does it mean the major players are escaping?
Precisely falling into the trap of price appearance.
The true way to break the deadlock: be wary of 'selling signals within bullish candles' during price increases.
During consolidation, look for 'chip transfer within the oscillation.'
Distinguishing 'wash trading or clearing inventory' during declines.
Only by understanding the logic of major players' selling can one protect their capital, avoid being the last buyer, and find opportunities amidst ETH's fluctuations.
