The Federal Reserve has been bustling internally for a long time. During the July interest rate meeting, two committee members directly expressed their dissatisfaction: "I don't accept this interest rate!" Stephen Moore, a Trump appointee, is waiting for the meeting to ignite while carrying a dovish bomb; the White House is also using political pressure to choke the central bank.

Bessent is even shouting for a 150 basis point rate cut, perhaps treating the Federal Reserve like his own printing press! He directly stated that the Federal Reserve needs to cut at least 150 to 175 basis points—what sounds like a suggestion is actually a call for a major move to slash market interest rates.

Traders are even crazier. Gamblers have pushed the odds of a rate cut in September to 96%. UBS's Haefele directly shouted: "Cut 100 basis points in September, don’t hesitate!" But the reality data doused cold water on this: core inflation has risen to 3.1%, and employment data is not so optimistic, with an average of only 35,000 new jobs in the last three months, and in May it even fell to 19,000.

What does this mean? The space for rate cuts is not that large, market interest rate pressure remains, and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to significantly cut rates in the short term. Funding and trading behavior are the main lines of the market: ETFs, institutions, and large compliant funds are still positioning themselves, focusing on risk and return, and will not dance to the tune of public opinion.

The various games in the White House and the financial circle are just the background; the key is on-chain data, chip structure, and capital flow—these are the real signals. For example, the capital flow of ETH and altcoins, concentration of holdings, and the pressure of old coins cashing out can determine the market trend more than news.

However, no matter how lively the market speculation is, don't be led by public opinion. Price fluctuations, capital flows, and chip structures are the hard indicators for judging trends.