U.S. inflation data shows: In July, the CPI year-on-year rate was 2.7%, lower than the expected value of 2.80%, matching the previous value of 2.70%; the core CPI year-on-year rate in July was 3.1%, higher than the expected value of 3.00%, higher than the previous value of 2.90%; the CPI data for July roughly meets expectations, indicating a sufficient likelihood of a rate cut in September. U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant called for the Federal Reserve to initiate 'compensatory' rate cuts, stating that rates should be lowered by 150 - 175 basis points, with the possibility of implementing a 50 basis point 'compensatory' rate cut in September, which could mark the beginning of continuous rate cuts to make up for the missed policy adjustment window earlier this summer.
To return to the main topic:
The U.S. continues to accumulate debt at a record pace, with the total U.S. national debt exceeding $37 trillion for the first time. Maya MacGuineas, head of the U.S. Federal Budget Accountability Committee, stated that the U.S. fiscal situation is severely imbalanced, yet Congress continues to worsen the situation. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce remarked that market forces will ultimately determine the successful forms of tokenization of securities and other physical assets, and Peirce emphasized that the SEC is willing to collaborate with market participants adopting different tokenization schemes to test the feasibility of various forms through market practice. (The Wall Street Journal) reported that the artificial intelligence search platform Perplexity AI has made a $34.5 billion acquisition offer to Google's Chrome browser to challenge Google's search dominance. El Salvador has been increasing its holdings of 1 BTC daily for 1,000 consecutive days, and the El Salvador government currently holds a total of 6,266.18 BTC. The UK-listed company The Smarter Web Company increased its holdings by 295 BTC, totaling 2,395 BTC. PR Newswire reported that the new ETH treasury company ETHZilla increased its holdings by 82,186 ETH at a price of $3,806.71. Bn announced that it became the first member to join the T3+ program, a global cooperation project aimed at jointly combating illegal activities on blockchain and promoting collaboration between the public and private sectors to address the illegal use of blockchain technology.
Bullish will be listed on the NYSE on August 13, Bullish was launched by Blockone (the parent company of EOS) in 2020. QCP stated that since mid-July, the correlation between BTC and the U.S. stock market has significantly strengthened, and the cryptocurrency market's outperformance aligns with the overall trend of risk appetite recovery. The U.S. stock market rebounded after the employment data was released last week, almost ignoring the impacts of new tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties. After several Federal Reserve members shifted from hawkish to dovish, a rate cut has almost become a foregone conclusion, and as BTC approaches historical highs, institutional demand and spot ETF inflows will become the focal point. The founder of The DeFi Report, Michael Nadeau, stated that since the third quarter of last year, ETH on CEX has decreased by 6.7%, currently at its lowest level since July 2016, and this number is expected to continue to decline. EthReservexyz data shows that so-called digital asset reserve companies have absorbed ETH worth over $15 billion to date. On August 11, U.S. spot ETH ETF inflows reached $1.01962 billion, exceeding $1 billion for the first time. On August 12, U.S. spot BTC ETF inflows reached $65.9 million. Spot ETH ETF inflows reached $523.9 million. Bitmine stated that it has increased its holdings by 317,000 ETH in the past week, currently holding a total of 1.15 million ETH. SharpLink increased its holdings by 5,226 ETH, currently holding 604,026 ETH, ranking second among institutional ETH holders. Framework Ventures co-founder Vance Spencer stated that Bitmine and Sharplink are expected to increase their holdings of ETH valued at $20 to $40 billion by 2025. NLNico data shows that last week, BTC financial companies cumulatively released 53 announcements, collectively increasing their holdings by about 5,000 BTC. Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi stated that with tariffs implemented and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning, according to the rotation law, from BTC to ETH, the mainstream will rise in turn, and finally, the altcoin season will begin, especially for those altcoins with fundamentals.
U.S. inflation data shows:
In July, the CPI year-on-year rate was 2.7%, lower than the expected value of 2.80%, matching the previous value of 2.70%; the seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate in July was 0.2%, matching the expectation of 0.20%, lower than the previous value of 0.30%. The core CPI year-on-year rate in July was 3.1%, higher than the expected value of 3.00%, higher than the previous value of 2.90%; the core CPI month-on-month rate in July was 0.3%, in line with expectations of 0.30%, higher than the previous value of 0.20%. The CPI data for July roughly meets expectations, indicating a sufficient likelihood of a rate cut in September without significant tariff effects being passed on to consumer prices. After the CPI data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in September rose to 91.8%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged until October was 2.2%. The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 31%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 66.7%. The expected inflation data intensified market speculation about a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs on Tuesday, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index rising by 3%. Trump stated that Federal Reserve Chair Powell was 'too late' and must now cut rates; this Fed chair has consistently lagged in monetary policy decisions, causing 'unmeasurable damage'. Consideration is being given to allowing a lawsuit against Fed Chair Powell related to his mismanagement of the Federal Reserve's building projects. U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant called for the Federal Reserve to initiate 'compensatory' rate cuts, suggesting that rates should be lowered by 150 - 175 basis points, with the possibility of implementing a 50 basis point 'compensatory' rate cut in September, which could mark the beginning of continuous rate cuts to make up for the missed policy adjustment window earlier this summer.
BlackRock stated that it expects the Federal Reserve to initiate rate cuts in September, with reasonable grounds for a 50 basis points cut. Goldman Sachs' research team previously indicated that the market is underestimating the likelihood of a 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Citigroup raised its target for the S&P 500 index from 6300 to 6600 points, expecting it to rise to 6900 points by mid-2026, an increase of approximately 8% from current levels. JPMorgan stated that as the job market cools, the Federal Reserve may adopt a preemptive rate cut 'danger logic', which would exacerbate inflation, forecasting that gold prices will reach $4000 per ounce by the first quarter of 2026.
On Tuesday, U.S. stocks opened with the Nasdaq index up 0.15%, the S&P 500 index up 0.15%, and the Dow Jones index up 0.54%, while gold rose by 0.45%. BTC rose by 1.2% to $122,000, ETH rose by 5.5% to reach $4,700, and altcoins followed suit. Bernstein stated that the recent excellent performance of ETH has been reflected, and this market structure is referred to as altcoin season, believing that the altcoin rebound has begun. From a bull market perspective, Bitcoin is prioritized for attention, with its liquidity spilling over, and Ethereum is catching up, gradually moving down, with altcoins likely to receive further gains. As the bull market prices become increasingly high, the prospects for the former benefit diminish, leading capital greed to search downwards for targets. Similar to the BTC reserve institutions at the beginning of the year, the ETH reserve institutions that emerged in June, and the recent appearances of other mainstream reserve institutions. The CPI data for U.S. inflation in July roughly meets expectations; on August 21 at the Jackson Hole seminar, it is expected that Powell will provide some guidance on the monetary policy direction for September, with the market currently anticipating a rate cut in September, with some predicting a 50 basis points cut. The Federal Reserve's rate cut promotes an increase in dollar liquidity, commonly referred to as 'water release', leading to a depreciation of the dollar, resulting in an increase in so-called risk assets priced in dollars, commonly referred to as a bull market or bubble. Beware of risks!