Bitcoin remains strong above $110,000 in recent months of 2025, supported by a consistent flow of ETF inflows and increasing demand from institutional investors.
The question dominating trading tables and analysis groups is: will BTC break $125,000 in this cycle — or could this be the limit?
To answer, it is necessary to look beyond the current price and analyze on-chain metrics, macroeconomic trends, typical behavior of halving cycles, and overall market sentiment. The signs point to an optimistic scenario, but it is essential to understand what is behind this moment.
In this article, we will present points that serve for reflection on how far the current Bitcoin bull run will go - and whether $125k will serve as a ceiling or a springboard for what is to come.
On-chain: increasingly scarce supply
One of the most discussed factors by analysts is the historically low level of BTC available on exchanges. Recent data shows that the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges is at its lowest level in several years, indicating that investors are opting for self-custody — a classic sign that they do not intend to sell in the short term.
Additionally:
Whale accumulation: wallets with more than 1,000 BTC have increased their net balance in recent months, reinforcing buying pressure;
Miner balances: despite the halving in April 2024 reducing rewards, many miners are holding more coins, possibly betting on higher prices.
This combination reduces the immediate supply in the market, which, in a scenario of increasing demand, tends to favor new highs.
Macro: weaker dollar and risk appetite
The macroeconomic context also plays a relevant role. The Dollar Index (DXY) shows signs of weakening as the market begins to price in interest rate cuts in the US for the end of 2025. A weaker dollar usually benefits risk assets, including Bitcoin, which many already treat as a kind of 'digital store of value.'
To give an idea, looking at this DXY index - which is nothing more than a comparison between the dollar and a basket of other currencies in the world - in the first half of 2025, a decline of over 10% was observed, which is the largest reduction in the dollar's value compared to the rest of the planet since the first half of 1973. In other words: the appetite for dollars is indeed lower, and this tends to push investors towards riskier assets.
Furthermore, global inflation remains moderate, and equity markets show strength — a scenario that stimulates allocation to alternative assets, as is the case with Bitcoin (as well as the asset class of other altcoins).
Halving: repeating patterns
Historically, the post-halving cycles of Bitcoin show a pattern:
Pre-halving accumulation, with prices gaining traction slowly;
Accelerated rise in the following months, driven by scarcity and positive narrative;
Formation of a peak about 12 to 18 months after the event.
The halving in April 2024 reduced daily issuance from 900 to 450 BTC. If history repeats itself, we are still at the beginning of the phase of greatest appreciation of the cycle, which makes $125,000 more of a waypoint than a definitive peak.
ETF inflows: institutional fuel
The approval and popularization of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US and other markets has brought a steady flow of daily buying, regardless of short-term volatility.
It is estimated that some ETFs are absorbing tens of thousands of BTC per month, reinforcing demand pressure and accelerating the scarcity process.
For institutional investors, ETFs are the simplest way to gain exposure to BTC without dealing with self-custody, which structurally broadens the buyer base.
Moreover, this institutional entry represents an additional stage of maturity for Bitcoin as an alternative asset. That situation of distrust regarding this investment - or even the chatter that 'it's just a bubble' - has disappeared from the map.
Market sentiment: confidence, but with caution
Sentiment indicators, such as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, point to high levels of optimism, but still far from the euphoric extreme that typically marks cycle peaks.
Social media shows an increase in interest for Bitcoin, but without the typical collective hysteria of bubble moments. This suggests that there is still room for new buyers to enter the game before a peak of widespread overbuying.
Apparently, based on what can be checked in the short term, there is more consolidation of previous users increasing their positions than necessarily a pure hype of new people coming in. And those who are entering now are, on average, institutional players, who come in with a much stronger volume and a deeper commitment than those who just want to 'buy Bitcoin to see what it's like.'
Factors that could hold back the rise
Despite the positive signs, it is important to consider risks that could delay or limit the advance to $125,000:
Profit-taking by large holders after strong rallies;
Unexpected macro events, such as geopolitical crises (due to military or trade tensions) or new interest rate hikes (in the face of a level of inflation more persistent than previously expected);
Regulation: abrupt changes in the legal framework of BTC in key markets may affect risk appetite.
None of these scenarios is dominant at the moment, but the attentive investor should monitor them, because in such a dynamic market, changes can happen faster than one might think.
$125,000: ceiling or springboard?
There are two possible readings for this price level:
As a ceiling: if the arrival at $125,000 comes accompanied by extreme euphoria, it may signal the proximity of the cycle peak;
As a springboard: if reached gradually, with still favorable on-chain and macro metrics, it may become just another step towards higher values — like $150,000 or even $180,000.
The difference will be in the quality of the movement: volume, whale behavior, institutional capital inflows, and the global scenario.
More important than reaching the level of $125,000 is to monitor how it happened. The greater the level of excitement, the more likely it is that the peak is near.
Strategies for traders and holders at this moment
For traders:
Use 50 and 200-day moving averages as a guide for supports and resistances;
Observe RSI or MACD divergences to identify reversal signals;
Gradually adjust stops to protect gains in case of correction.
For holders:
Define ranges for partial realization (for example, 10% of the position at each important milestone);
Avoid impulsive decisions based solely on headlines;
Reinforce custody security, especially if holding high capital outside of exchanges.
In the end, the scenario favors new highs
The combination of on-chain scarcity, institutional flow, favorable macro context, and historical post-halving cycles places Bitcoin in a privileged position to seek or even exceed $125,000 still in this cycle.
Whether this will be the peak or just another milestone will depend on how the market behaves during the rise. For the prepared investor, the most important thing is to monitor data, maintain discipline, and act strategically — because in the crypto market, each new peak can just be the beginning of another level.
And you, do you believe that $125k will be a peak point or just the beginning of a new trajectory?
#bitcoin #BTC #bullish #BTCReclaims120K
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Photo by kasemkaew, available on Freepik