$ETH /USDT Technical Analysis, Price Forecast & Smart Trade Plan – 13 Aug 2025
💎 High-value insights for active traders
📍 Market Snapshot
Current Price: $4,638.89 (+8.23% 🚀 | Strong bullish push)
24h Range: $4,256.92 → $4,656.24
Key Resistance: $4,656.24 → $4,759.57 (break = new highs)
Key Support: $4,296.53 (EMA7) → $4,256.92 (24h low) → $3,841.92 (EMA25)
1️⃣ Trend & Momentum
EMA(7): $4,296.53
EMA(25): $3,841.92
EMA(99): $3,082.67
✅ Strong uptrend confirmed: Price > EMA(7) > EMA(25) > EMA(99) → Trend momentum intact.
2️⃣ Overbought Signals
RSI(6): 86.87 ⚠ (Extreme overbought)
Stoch RSI: 94.52 (MA: 89.23) 🚨 Overextension at risk of pullback
📌 Translation: Bulls are in control, but the rally is overheating. High risk of near-term rejection.
3️⃣ Volume Divergence
Current Volume: 115K ETH
MA(5): 582K | MA(10): 558K
⚠ Volume 80% below average = Rally lacks strong participation.
💡 Historically, low-volume breakouts have a higher probability of short-term corrections.
⏳ Price Outlook
Short-Term (1–4h):
Resistance likely at $4,656–$4,760 → Pullback to $4,300–$4,400 (EMA7 zone).
24h View:
Bullish Case: Close > $4,760 with volume > 500K ETH → Next target: $4,900–$5,000.
Bearish Case: Break < $4,256.92 → Drop toward $4,000–$3,842 (EMA25).
🎯 High-Probability Trade Plan
📌 Scenario 1: Buy-the-Dip (Main Strategy)
Entries:
$4,300–$4,350 (EMA7 + prior low)
$4,000–$4,100 (EMA25 + psychological level)
Stop-Loss:
Zone 1: $4,250
Zone 2: $3,950
Take-Profit:
TP1: $4,500
TP2: $4,656
TP3: $4,900
Confirmation: RSI(6) cools to 50–60 & volume > 300K ETH.
📌 Scenario 2: Short at Resistance
Trigger: Rejection at $4,656–$4,760 + bearish candle (pinbar/doji).
Stop-Loss: $4,800
Take-Profit:
TP1: $4,400
TP2: $4,300
TP3: $4,100
Confirmation: Stoch RSI < 90 + sudden sell-volume spike.
📌 Risk Management Rules
Risk ≤ 2% capital per trade.
Max leverage: 3x (due to volatility).
SL to breakeven after +1.5% gain.
Exit longs if EMA(7) closes < $4,250.
Exit shorts if price closes > $4,760.
📊 Key Things to Watch
1. Volume spike > 500K ETH → bullish breakout fuel.
2. RSI(6) > 80 → caution for long entries.
3. Macro catalysts: ETH ETF updates, network activity surge, BTC dominance changes.
📌 Pro Trader’s Summary
🔵 Bias: Bullish trend but overbought — avoid chasing highs without confirmation.
💡 Best Play: Wait for healthy dips near $4,300–$4,350 before entering longs.
⚠ Short setups only if $4,656–$4,760 rejects with clear reversal signals.
📢 Reminder: Overheated price + low volume = elevated correction risk.
📍 Trade smart. Let price come to you.
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