⚔️ $ETH M15 — Trap, Bounce, Retest: Read the Room
ETH Snapshot (M15 chart right now)
Price: $4150–4160
MA: Steep downsloping, acting as intraday resistance
RSI: ~57 after rising from oversold lows
Action: Bounce off 4109–4125, now testing resistance near MA / prior intraday highs
🔎 Technical Breakdown
1. Trend & MA Control
The 15-min MA is still sloping down → short-term trend remains bearish.
Until ETH closes multiple candles above the MA, every bounce = rally into supply, not a trend change.
2. Structure Shift (Early Signs)
ETH stopped printing lower lows and formed higher lows near 4150s.
Possible shift from distribution → accumulation, but not confirmed unless we break and hold above 4168–4175 (the neckline zone).
3. Key Levels
Support / Buyer Zone: 4109–4125 (defended multiple times).
Resistance: 4168–4175 (neckline + MA cluster), then 4200–4215 (major breakdown shelf).
If 4109 fails: next downside magnet = 4065 (daily order block).
4. RSI Momentum
RSI improving from sub-50 → 57 = recovery, not breakout.
Mild bullish divergence on the lows (flat price, rising RSI) explains the bounce, but confirmation needs price-level breaks, not just RSI signals.
5. Candles Tell the Story
Long lower wicks near 4110s → buyers stepping in.
Upper wicks into 4170s → sellers unloading.
Classic “bounce → tag supply → reassess” sequence.
6. Pattern Playbook
Bear flag setup: Rejection under 4170s → drop toward 4125 → 4109 → 4065.
Inverse H&S setup: Break + hold above 4170s → squeeze toward 4200–4215.
🧠 Market Psychology
Dump → Fear spike = late shorts chasing bottoms.
Bounce → Relief = FOMO longs pile in.
Big players exploit this: drive price into obvious zones, force traders to show commitment.
Retail trap right now: “Support reclaimed!” … but only confirmed closes matter.
📓 Playbook Mindset (No Hopium)
Bullish Scenario
Need M15 closes above 4168–4175 + acceptance above MA.
Entry: Pullbacks after reclaim → Target 4200–4215.
Invalidation: Drop back under 4150 with fading momentum.
Bearish Scenario
Rejection at 4170s + breakdown under 4125 → opens path to 4109 → 4065.
Lose 4065 = daily momentum drags ETH toward 4000 → 3800.
Discipline Rule
No chasing green/red candles.
Trade reactions at levels, not emotional narratives.
✅ Bottom Line
This is retest territory, not a confirmed breakout.
Win = Reclaim 4170s with strength → 4200+ in sight.
Lose = Slip under 4125 → path
toward 4065 reopens.
Patience pays. Wait for confirmation. Let the chart—not emotions—guide your next ETH trade.
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