ARK Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood recently stated in an interview with CoinDesk that as the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory environment undergoes significant changes, blockchain innovation is accelerating its return to the U.S. She predicts that in an optimistic scenario, Bitcoin's price could exceed $1 million in the next five years, while Ethereum is steadily becoming the preferred public chain protocol for institutions.
Regulatory shift injects momentum into the market
Cathie Wood pointed out that the U.S. regulatory environment has shifted from the past high-pressure 'enforcement-style regulation' led by former SEC Chairman Gary Gensler to a more friendly model guided by legislation, appointing David Sacks to concurrently oversee policy planning in the cryptocurrency and AI sectors. She believes that this change not only curtails the outflow of innovation but also provides a clear compliance framework for financial institutions entering the blockchain field, encouraging more banks and fintech companies to launch blockchain services, reducing transaction costs and enhancing market efficiency.
She cites that traditional credit card transactions require a fee of 2%–3.5% as a risk hedging cost, while blockchain payment systems can reduce the cost to around 1%; in emerging markets, the cost reduction can even exceed 20%, which has significant implications for promoting inclusive finance and the digital economy.
The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish
Regarding Bitcoin price predictions, Cathie Wood stated that ARK's current optimistic scenario estimates that the price will reach $1.5 million by 2030, but against the backdrop of the rapid proliferation of stablecoins, some Bitcoin demand originally belonging to emerging markets may be replaced, thus adjustments will be made in the model regarding the related weights.
She pointed out that stablecoins have become an important way for emerging markets to acquire U.S. dollars, especially as USDT rapidly gained popularity after the COVID-19 pandemic, allowing the public to avoid purchasing dollars through the black market. Nevertheless, institutional adoption of Bitcoin as a substitute for gold's value storage function remains a core driver supporting its long-term rise.
Market positioning of Ethereum and Solana
In the ecosystem of smart contract public chains, Cathie Wood believes that while Ethereum is not as cost-effective and fast as its competitors, its higher level of decentralization and security makes it the preferred foundational protocol for institutions. Both Coinbase's Layer 2 'Base' and Robinhood's new Layer 2 solution are built on top of Ethereum.
Solana is expected to become a leader in consumer-facing applications due to its advantages in transaction speed and user experience. ARK's cryptocurrency portfolio is mainly focused on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, and continues to pay attention to the development of Layer 2 infrastructure.
Short-term threats from quantum computing are minimal
Regarding the market's concern about the threat of quantum computing to blockchain, Cathie Wood believes that it will not pose a significant impact on Bitcoin's security before 2030. She explains that the current pace of AI technology development far exceeds that of quantum computing, and many problems originally hoped to be solved by quantum computing are being replaced by AI, thus capital and R&D focus may continue to lean towards the AI field.
Source
