"When Wall Street's algorithms start collectively 'getting high', the myth of sudden wealth in the crypto world and the tragedy of liquidation are often just a puff away from the Federal Reserve's 'cigarette butts'."

Sudden good news: 91.8% probability of interest rate cuts, is liquidity in the crypto world about to 'open the floodgates'?

Tonight, the Federal Reserve's 'interest rate cut probability chart' suddenly soared to 91.8%, igniting market sentiment directly—ETH surged 150 points in 30 minutes, from 4270 to 4420, performing a dramatic show of speed and passion.

My viewpoint:
This surge is not a retail frenzy, but a 'reflex' of high-frequency trading algorithms. When CPI data and interest rate cut expectations are both met, programmatic trading will instantly sweep up, creating a 'spike' market. But don’t rush to chase highs—the real battlefield is at the FOMC meeting on September 17 (countdown 37 days), which is the key day to determine the fate of bulls and bears.

Historical cases:
In June 2023, after the Federal Reserve hinted at a pause in interest rate hikes, ETH surged 28% in a week, but then plummeted 15% due to recurring inflation. Before good news materializes, it is heaven; after it materializes, it may be hell.

Advance layout

Technical truth: Is the surge a trap? Or is it the main force's 'reallocation trick'?

Those who understand K-lines have long been sneering during the surge: 'These shorts are going to get slaughtered.'

Key signal breakdown:

  1. BOLL band pressure: After ETH surged to 4428 (upper band 4377), it precisely retraced, indicating that the main force is 'painting doors' to entice buyers.

  2. MACD + RSI double death cross: Volume shrinks to almost zero, RSI drops from 60 to 56, a typical case of 'volume-price divergence'.

  3. Whale tactics: Sudden surge to explode short positions → then reverse to smash down and accumulate, this method was used once when Bitcoin surged to 70,000 in April 2024, resulting in retail investors getting their hands soft from buying in.

Line of life and death:

  • Iron bottom support: BOLL lower band 4134, breaking it means a direct liquidation (indicating macro logic failure).

  • Resistance level: 4377 is the short-term ceiling, breaking through requires volume to expand to 145k (currently only 116k).

"The stories of sudden wealth in the crypto world are always written in the script of 'being greedy when others are fearful'—but the premise is, you must survive to the last chapter."

I am a data-driven analyst in the crypto world, only speaking the plain truth. Follow me, and before the next surge, I'll help you ambush early, so you can also enjoy a feast like today! #CPI数据来袭