"The crypto market is always running in a cycle of 'celebration-liquidation'. Last night's ETH surge was merely a time bomb planted by the bulls for the bears—now, the countdown has begun."

Why did ETH surge last night? Simply put, it's the combination of 'news + technical analysis' that triggered the explosion.

Last night's ETH market can be considered a classic case of 'news sparking the fire, technical analysis igniting it':

1. Data at 8:30 ignited the first wave, pulling from $4280 directly to $4400.

2. News: The US Treasury Secretary suddenly hinted at a '50 basis point rate cut', and Trump jumped in to pressure Powell, causing the market to spike—liquidity easing = cheaper money = more people rush into the crypto market to gamble. Directly broke through $4600.

3. Technical aspect: MACD formed a golden cross above the zero line (bullish signal). After last night's breakout above the previous high of $4650, the bear's stop-loss orders were triggered, which directly evolved into an accelerated 'bulls pushing against the bears' market (bears were forced to close positions, pushing the price up in return).

Why does the market predict ETH will retrace today? Three signals have already turned red.

Last night's surge is essentially a 'sentiment-driven' short-term market, but the market never lets the bulls feel too comfortable—today, the probability of a retracement exceeds 80% for three reasons:

  1. RSI is outrageously overbought: RSI1 directly soared to 79.44. Historical data shows that in this case, there is a 72% probability of a retracement of at least 3%.

  2. The Bollinger Bands can't 'hold on' anymore: ETH price broke through the upper band ($4678), but the Bollinger Bands have not fully opened, indicating a strong demand for the price to 'return to the middle band' ($4434).

  3. The liquidity gap is at 'accumulation': Last night's rapid rise left a gap at $4550-$4580. According to the crypto market's 'gaps must be filled' rule, the price is likely to retrace to this range.

Personal opinion: Right now, the bulls are like dancing on the edge of a cliff—looking good on the surface, but as long as there is one negative factor (like Powell pouring cold water tonight), they could fall at any moment.

How much will the retracement fall? Three target levels that both bulls and bears need to watch closely.

Based on the relationship between volume and price and key support levels, the depth of the retracement can be divided into three tiers:

  1. First target: $4580 (last night's breakout level + gap support)—if it falls to this level with volume and stops falling, it may signal a re-entry for the bulls.

  2. Second target: $4434 (BOLL middle track + bull-bear dividing line)—if it falls below this level, it indicates that the bulls have completely given up, and the market may shift to consolidation.

  3. Extreme retracement: $4350 (provided there is an unexpected negative factor, like a stock market crash or Powell denying aggressive rate cuts)—this scenario has a low probability, but if it happens, the bears will go on a rampage.

Is the retracement an opportunity or a trap?

"A retracement is not the end of the world, but blindly chasing highs is definitely a grave mistake."
Today's ETH movement is essentially the ultimate battle between bulls and bears at a key price level ($4580-$4650)—is it the bulls using the retracement to gather strength for a new high, or the bears taking the opportunity to counterattack? Pay attention to the market indicators, and let them guide you through the bull and bear phases!#ETH突破4400