Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is extending its main 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) fueled rebound, which only recently confirmed the continuation with a short-term bounce on the 1D MA50. The short-term setting is transferred now back to the long-term and the next Resistance, which is the middle (0.5 Fibonacci level) of the macro Channel Up, that has been dominating BTC's price action since late 2017.
The 0.5 Fib has made its last rejection/ failed attempt to break on December 16 2024. It's been holding as a Resistance since May 02 2022. The last two Cycle Tops however haven't only been priced above the 0.5 Fib but above the 0.786 level too (obviously as close to the Channel Top as possible).
As a result, if BTC does break above the 0.5 level, a 'mere' test of the immediate upper Fib (the 0.618) could be translated by the end of the year (timing of Cycle Top) to a $200k test. That would also be a test of the Top of the 1st SD above (red Zone) of the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMBs), which is technically still within high tolerance levels.
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