At the macro level, the latest data from CME's "FedWatch" indicates a mere 14.1% probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in September, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut stands at 85.9%. Looking ahead to October, expectations of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut exceed half, further strengthening market confidence in easing policy.

CoinShares' latest report shows that digital asset investment products saw renewed inflows last week, totaling $572 million. Ethereum-related ETPs performed particularly well, receiving $268 million in inflows, setting a year-to-date record of $8.2 billion and pushing assets under management to a new high of $32.6 billion. Ethereum-related products have grown 82% year-to-date. Bitcoin also saw $260 million in inflows after two consecutive weeks of outflows, while short positions on Bitcoin decreased by $4 million. Among other major cryptocurrencies, Solana, XRP, and Near saw inflows of $21.8 million, $18.4 million, and $10.1 million, respectively.

Institutional activity is also noteworthy. BitMine announced that as of the evening of August 10th, its holdings reached 1,150,263 ETH, with a market capitalization exceeding $4.96 billion, making it the world's largest ETH reserve holder. Fundamental Global, a Nasdaq-listed company, invested all of its $200 million in a previous private placement into ETH, holding 47,331 tokens at an average purchase price of $4,228.40. Another listed company, 180 Life Sciences Corp., also issued $156 million in convertible bonds, intending to further increase its ETH holdings and pledging to regularly disclose its holdings.

In the US, market attention is focused on the upcoming CPI release. Last month's broad CPI was 2.7%, meeting market expectations of 2.8% and the Cleveland Fed's forecast of 2.72%, indicating a high probability of the data falling within the expected range. A figure below 2.7% would be positive for the market. The monthly CPI and core CPI trends suggest that while inflation remains affected by tariffs, the pressure has not significantly increased. The direction of monetary policy now hinges not only on the Federal Reserve but also on the tussle between radicals and conservatives, making the prospect of a September interest rate cut particularly compelling.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of 1,493 coins yesterday, worth $178 million.

(Figure 1)

The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of 239,800 coins yesterday, worth $1.019 billion.

(Figure 2)

On-chain data shows that turnover rate increased on Monday, mainly due to active trading by short-term players, while long-term holders remained stable.

According to URPD data, 1.46 million bitcoins are accumulated in the range of $103,500-108,500; 1.606 million bitcoins are accumulated in the range of $93,500-98,500.

(Figure 3)

Overall, Bitcoin's price around $126,000, corresponding to an MVRV of 2.42, is a key resistance level, making it difficult to break through in the short term. The potential window for a breakthrough is likely in September. A downward correction is possible in the short term, potentially challenging the strong support range of $115,900-117,100. An MVRV of 1.93, corresponding to approximately $100,000, represents the theoretical bottom range, but a rapid decline below this level in the short term is unlikely.