At the macro level, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed optimism about the September Federal Reserve meeting, suggesting a one-time reduction of 50 basis points is possible, and recommended an overall rate cut of between 150 and 175 basis points. Federal Reserve official Goolsbee pointed out that if inflation continues to move towards the 2% target, an early rate cut is entirely possible; conversely, a pause or even a rate hike may occur. Trump bluntly stated that interest rates should be lowered to 1%.
Under the stimulus of policy signals, Bitcoin's market value has surpassed $2.457 trillion, overtaking Google to rank 5th in global asset market value. In terms of institutional holdings, Strategy's total BTC holdings have reached a historic high of $77.2 billion, while SpaceX's 8,285 BTC are valued at over $1 billion, remaining unchanged since the last increase in 2022.
Regarding Ethereum, Polymarket data shows that investors predict a 75% chance of reaching an all-time high before August 31, currently only about 5% away from that historic peak. Additionally, Ethereum's Fusaka hard fork is set to be implemented in November 2025, planning to introduce 11 EIP proposals to enhance network scalability and node efficiency. In response to recent large transactions, Hsiao-Wei Wang, co-executive director of the Ethereum Foundation, clarified that the 2,794.87 ETH sold yesterday was not a Foundation operation, and the Foundation currently holds less than 0.3% of the total ETH supply.
On-chain data reveals that the turnover rate of BTC has decreased as it approaches its historic high, indicating reduced selling pressure from players.
URPD data shows that 1.423 million Bitcoins are accumulated in the $103,500-$108,500 range; 1.588 million Bitcoins are accumulated in the $93,500-$98,500 range.
(Figure 1)
BTC: The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of 724 BTC yesterday, valued at $86.9 million, indicating a decline in institutional interest in Bitcoin. Bitcoin has validated the firmness of the $117,000 support level and is approaching the first target price of $125,000 in the MVRV deviation channel. If it can break through and stabilize without falling below the testing point, the probability of hitting $137,000 will significantly increase.
ETH: The U.S. spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of 158,900 ETH yesterday, valued at $729 million, showing strong institutional confidence in Ethereum's future market. On August 12, a single-day profit reached $1.742 billion, the highest since 2023. Super whales holding over 100,000 ETH cashed out $835 million, primarily from chips with costs between $1,200 and $2,300. Despite significant selling pressure, buying activity remains robust, with bulls still in control.
SOL: Yesterday, RC funds increased by $120 million, a small scale yet enough to drive moderate gains, reflecting limited short-term selling pressure and creating space for subsequent upward movement.