Federal Reserve's September Rate Cut Probability Increases

Market Data Overview

• Federal Reserve's September rate cut probability rises from 90.7% to 92.4%

• BTC price falls back to $11,600, a significant pullback from the $123,000 high

• ETH drops below $3,700, intensifying liquidation among long positions in the futures market

Driving Factors Analysis

• Weak economic data: July non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, unemployment rate remains high at 4.3%

• Policy shift signals: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman supports three rate cuts within the year

• Market expectation changes: Goldman Sachs predicts a potential 100 basis point cut for the year

Trading Strategy Reference

• BTC focuses on the $11,400-$11,600 support range; a breakout could test $12,000

• ETH is advised to pay attention to the $3,650 retracement level and ETH/BTC arbitrage opportunities

• July CPI data will become a potential turning point for the market

• ETH funding rate drops to -0.05%, indicating increased defensive sentiment $BTC $ETH #以太坊生态回暖 #BTC重返12万