Ethereum Triangle Convergence Breakthrough Fails: Warning of Pullback and Key Position Game Under Divergence

1. Triangle Pattern Breakthrough Failure: High Position Doji Exposes Divergence

The cryptocurrency attempted to break through the triangle convergence pattern this morning but failed, closing with two high position dojis - a typical signal of divergence: insufficient upward momentum, while bearish selling pressure begins to manifest. The essence of institutional investment is profit-seeking, and after a turnover (exchange of buy and sell chips) around $4,349, the price subsequently pulled back, aligning with the market principle of 'after a rise, a pullback is inevitable.'

Current Key: The price only 'pierced' the lower boundary of the triangle, and the closing price has not yet settled below the triangle. We need to wait for the 7 o'clock hourly closing price confirmation - if it truly breaks below the triangle, the next target is the neckline at $4,161; after losing the neckline, the pullback trend will be formally established, and if the rebound cannot reclaim the neckline, it will continue to explore lower levels.

2. Short-term Trading Strategy: Critical Point Operations for Rebound and Pullback

• Long Logic (Rebound Opportunity):

Breakthrough with volume at $4,264 → chase long on the right side to catch the rebound, stabilize above $4,260 on the hourly level → target $4,305 → $4,332 (needs volume support, otherwise regarded as a weak rebound).

• Short Logic (Continuation of Pullback):

Breakdown with volume below $4,244 → chase short on the right side, breakdown below $4,205 on the 4-hour level → aim for $4,159 → $4,072; breaking below $4,159 is the 'starting gun' for the 4-hour level pullback, must follow decisively.

3. Pullback Targets and Trend Depth: Fibonacci Guidance and 'Squat' Logic

The cryptocurrency rose from around $3,300 to $4,300, with a cumulative increase of $1,000, and there is a technical need for a pullback:

• For hourly level pullback, first look at the Fibonacci 1:1 target at $4,181; if support fails, it will test the 1.618 times extension level at $4,077 (specific depth needs to be verified as it moves);

• From the perspective of trend health, a pullback of $500 is reasonable (corresponding target around $3,800) - 'the deeper the squat, the higher the jump,' a full pullback can instead accumulate momentum for subsequent rises.

Summary: Waiting for Confirmation Signals, Not Betting on Trend Direction

Currently, the cryptocurrency is in a 'triangle breakthrough failure + early pullback' state, with the core operation: do not guess tops and bottoms, wait for the 7 o'clock hourly closing price to confirm whether the triangle has broken. Watch the effectiveness of the rebound at $4,264, and monitor key positions at $4,244 and $4,159 for pullbacks. Quietly wait for liquidity changes after the U.S. stock market opens.