Bitcoin High Position Risk Warning: The Game of Liquidity Traps and Shape Signals

I. Key Tips on Bearish Liquidity and Gap Filling

The bearish liquidity above the Bitcoin price is concentrated at $123,064, which is not a bullish signal—if an abnormal situation occurs where 'positions are supposed to be closed but are not,' it is necessary to remain highly vigilant: the main force may create a sudden reversal by leveraging a 'stalemate' to catch everyone off guard with a pullback.

At the same time, the two gaps at $118,400-$119,100 that appeared during the rise are likely to be filled this week due to their proximity to the current price. These two positions are the initial layout points for medium to long-term contract players (short-term players should not intervene to avoid being trapped in fluctuations).

II. Daily Level Double Top Risk and Area Divergence Warning

• Double Top Critical Point: If the daily level fails to break through the previous high, it will form a 'double needle top' and return to box oscillation; the only way to break this is to push up and create a new historical high; otherwise, the current trend 'could turn down at any time.'

• Waterfall Risk Trigger: If it breaks below the box's midline + lower edge, a waterfall market will begin, and today's daily high may become the recent top.

• Area Divergence Signal: Prices are rising but the volume is not keeping up (consistent with the top divergence logic), which is a clear bearish signal. However, it should be noted: divergence does not necessarily lead to an immediate drop; it may stagnate for several days or eliminate the signal through aggressive upward movement—be calm the more it rises to avoid chasing high prices.

III. Short-Term Trading Strategy: Anchoring Breakthrough Validity and Gap Filling

• Long Position Strategy:

1. Volume breakout at $121,410 → Short-term chase long (quick in and out);

2. Stable at $121,435 on the hourly level → Target $121,815 → $122,450; if it cannot hold $122,450, the previous high is unlikely.

• Short Position Strategy:

1. Volume breaks below $120,964 → Right-side chase short, stop loss if the pullback cannot recover;

2. Break below $120,566 on the 4-hour level → Establish a pullback, look down at $119,242 → $118,098, simultaneously triggering gap filling.

IV. 4-Hour Level False Breakthrough Warning: Short-Term Top Suspicions

In the 4-hour chart, the triangle shape fell back after a false breakout, forming a long upper shadow line—clearly releasing a 'short-term top' signal. Unless it breaks and stabilizes above the triangle's upper edge, the probability of a pullback is high. The ideal trend would be to retrace to the position indicated by the white arrow, consolidate, and then rise, closely monitoring whether the volume can cooperate for repair.

Summary: Don't be greedy at high positions, don't panic about gaps.