📌 Current Situation
- BTC Price: Closed the week at $119,400, settling above the key POC level of $118,000 (main trading volume zone) — this confirms the strength of the bulls.
- Key Range: $116,415–$119,893 — support zone. Breaking $120,000 will open the path to ATH ($123,000+).
- Early growth on 11.08: A sharp price spike gathered seller liquidity, which often precedes new highs.
🔍 Scenarios for the Coming Days
1. Optimistic (new ATH)
- Triggers:
- Holding above $120,500 → testing $123,000 and a surge to $131,000 (according to Fibonacci levels).
- Positive CPI data on 12.08 (if inflation is below forecasts) — a reduction in Fed rates will support risk appetite.
- Institutional Demand: ETF funds continued to see inflows ($935 million on 09.08).
- Risks: Overbought (RSI 63), but there is still room before the zone >70.
2. Correction (pullback to $117,000–$112,000)
- Reasons:
- CME Gap: The unclosed gap of $117,425–$119,000 may "pull" the price.
- Profit-taking: Major players may sell as they approach $123,000.
- Weak CPI data: Rising inflation will intensify fears of Fed tightening.
- Support Levels:
- $117,425 (CME gap) → $116,000 (POC) → $112,000 (next stronghold) .
📉 Key Influencing Factors
1. Macroeconomics (12–13.08):
- CPI and employment data — main drivers of volatility. Decreasing inflation = rising BTC, and vice versa.
2. Technique:
- Volumes: High activity at $118,000 confirms institutional interest.
- CME Futures: Closing the gap — a likely scenario, but not guaranteed in a strong trend.
3. Market Psychology:
- Fear/Greed (Index 67) — Neutral-Optimistic Background.
- Altseason: Rotation from BTC to altcoins may weaken the momentum.
💡 Tactics for Traders
- Long: Entry on a pullback to $117,000–$116,000 with a stop below $115,500. Targets: $123,000 → $131,000 .
- Short: Only on a break of $116,000 and CPI > forecast. Target: $112,000 .
- Hedging: Options on volatility around the CPI release.
🚀 Conclusion
- Base Scenario (60%): Rise to $123,000–$125,000 by the end of the week with a pullback to $117,000 after CPI.
- Alternative (40%): Sharp pullback to $112,000 on negative macro data, but with subsequent recovery by September.
- Main Signal: A weekly close above $120,500 will confirm the strength of the bulls.
> Important: BTC has exited the classic 4-year cycle — its movement is now more influenced by macro factors and ETFs than by halving. Corrections will be less deep (30–50% vs 70–80% in the past), but volatility will remain.
Analysis is based on data from TradingView, CryptoQuant, and macro trends. For details see [sources](https://www.fxteam.ru/forex/opinion/16010.html) and [CNBC forecasts](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/08/bitcoin-btc-price-cycle-might-be-breaking.html).
