August 11, 2025
As ETH continues to refresh its second-high price and heads towards a historical new high, the best scenario would be for BTC to perform well, reclaiming the 120,000 integer mark, and ideally breaking its own record again. Yesterday, I provided a market expectation, and unexpectedly, it was achieved today, which is definitely a small surprise for Ethereum. According to the betting information from the largest decentralized prediction market, Polymarket, the probability of Ethereum reaching a historical new high this year is 74%. In my view, the probability of reaching a new high and hitting 5000 points is even greater, as it only requires an increase of about 10 points to achieve it. Is 10 points difficult for an asset that has already rebounded 3 times from its lowest point?
For Ethereum, the core of value is still its ecosystem, and the prosperity of the ecosystem can be reflected through some data. One simple and intuitive data point is TVL, the total value locked on-chain. When the market is focused on Wall Street capital buying Ethereum, this data has surpassed 90 billion USD, approaching the historical new high of 100 billion USD. This shows that when Ethereum's price breaks through historical new highs, this data will likely also set a record. Price and ecosystem go hand in hand. I want to express that even if this round of market trends is not driven by the development of Ethereum's ecosystem, it can still approach historical peaks. This indirectly indicates that the ecosystem value of Ethereum is gradually increasing, albeit slowly.
Another noteworthy data point is the total amount of on-chain issued stablecoins. This is actually easy to understand; just like different trading platforms compete for existing funds and total stablecoin amounts, the total amount of stablecoins on-chain can to some extent represent the level of trust in the funds. According to Surf data, the current Ethereum network occupies the top spot with a total of 137 billion, followed by Tron with 83 billion. Many people may have heard of the stablecoin application scenarios of the latter, which has captured the market with its first-mover advantage and low transfer fees, including many applications outside of the cryptocurrency space. However, the actual data still shows Ethereum leading by a wide margin, mainly thanks to the contributions of other stablecoins like USDC. It is worth noting that the total amount of stablecoins on the two public chains, ETH and TRX, accounts for over 80% of the global total, indicating an absolute lead.
In terms of specific market conditions, Ethereum has officially broken through 4100, setting a new historical second-high point. Now Bitcoin is catching up, which is the best scenario, meaning that funds are continuously being injected. As the pricing power of BTC gradually shifts to Wall Street, the capital that has tasted success seems to be scrambling for ETH's chips. Relatively speaking, both in terms of market value and price, ETH's attractiveness is greater. When an asset is in higher demand, the price will surely continue to rise. Next, we can wait for it to break through 4800, and during this period, I will take another 10% position to sell, and adjust according to the situation. Currently, my total position is slightly less than 70%.
Thank you for your attention and likes. #BTC重返12万