August 10, 2025 Market Analysis
First, let's talk about the market capitalization situation of the sectors. In the strong surge of Ethereum, one key indicator we must pay attention to is BTC's market share. The latest data shows that BTC.D has dropped to around 60%, a decline of 6 points from its peak. Looking solely at this indicator, I believe the current market is not yet at its peak. On one hand, the drop is limited, not even 10 points; on the other hand, in absolute terms, based on historical data, a drop below 40% is a signal of extreme danger for the market. Considering the increased maturity of the market, we can wait until it drops to 50% before starting to significantly reduce our positions.
The decline in BTC's market cap share is mainly due to the surge of ETH; however, the overall altcoin sector has not risen much, so the market's FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment has not emerged. Judging the state of the market through market sentiment is also one of the commonly used methods, and from this perspective, it has not yet reached the so-called greed state. The rise of Ethereum is making the market increasingly frantic, and in the past two days, I've heard the community discussing whether ETH can surpass Bitcoin again. From the perspective of smart contracts and ecological development, there is indeed hope, but it is clearly not possible this round. The driving force behind this market wave is also the capital from Wall Street, which can be understood as the overflow of strategic allocation funds from BTC. This way of thinking will help everyone understand that only when the power of price increases comes from the explosion of the ecosystem can there be the possibility of surpassing. Therefore, when the market exhibits some irrational statements, we must learn to view them rationally and avoid blindly following the crowd.
Finally, let's analyze the price trend of Ethereum in detail. Undoubtedly, the new price high is a result of institutional capital's influence. Otherwise, according to the style of the cryptocurrency market, it would be very difficult for Ethereum to break through such immense pressure without a breakthrough in Bitcoin. Indeed, in my judgment system, Ethereum has already broken through. This so-called breakthrough does not imply there won't be a pullback; rather, even if there is a pullback, this wave of the market has not ended. Currently, looking at this trend, the next target of 4800 points is merely a matter of time. Of course, since this price is still some distance from what I consider a truly effective breakthrough, there is a high probability of a slight pullback in the next 1-2 days.
Additionally, perhaps everyone has also seen that Bitcoin's price has slightly increased today. Although it has not yet reached 120,000, it is good news for the market. Ideally, if Ethereum maintains a sideways movement or a slight pullback to digest this pressure point more thoroughly, and then BTC breaks through 120,000, it would be certain that Ethereum will reach its historical new high. The upcoming period is still worth looking forward to, including the altcoin season. The rise of altcoins must wait for the capital overflow from Ethereum; therefore, this is also a method for us to judge when Ethereum's market might peak. As long as there are no significant signs of a decline in ETH's buying pressure, the upward trend is unlikely to change easily. However, in the short term, there may be another test of the strength around 4000-4100, so it's advisable to hold onto spot positions and avoid excessive leverage.
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